It’s been another great day for trading with significant moves underway across a number of markets. EUR and European indices rallied today after the OECD raised its 2015 GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone while cutting its forecast for other leading world economies. The ECB maintained interest rates and QE as expected and raised its 2015 inflation forecast confirming that deflation pressures have eased. The ECB plans to keep its QE program going as planned as it appears to be helping. There was more noise about Greece but nothing substantial heading into Friday’s first IMF payment due date. That situation can still flare up or subside at any time. US indices followed their European counterparts higher, while USD fell slightly as US data was mixed. ADP payrolls were bang on expectations, while the trade deficit was not as bad as feared, service PMI was a bit soft and the Beige Book suggested general improvement (except in the oil impacted Dallas and Kansas City regions). US news goes relatively quiet Thursday as traders await Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Crude oil turned south again and tumbled 2% today as traders focused on reports that OPEC is unlikely to cut production at Friday’s meeting. US crude oil inventories fell at a smaller than expected pace which didn’t help the situation either. AUD and NZD have been rebounding and could be active again today with trade and retail sales figures due for Australia today. GBP could be active around the Bank of England meeting although no changes are expected to policy there. Markets may remain active through the day as traders get set for what could be a huge day on Friday between the OPEC meeting, Greece IMF deadline, US nonfarm payrolls and more. Corporate News There have been no major corporate announcements after the US close today. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: ECB decision no change to QE or interest rate expected OECD economic outlook (GDP forecasts) World cut to 3.1% from 3.6% US cut to 2.0% from 3.1% Eurozone raised to 1.4% from 1.1% China cut to 6.8% from 7.1% Japan cut to 0.7% from 0.8% ECB 2015 forecasts GDP unchanged at 1.5% Inflation raised to 0.3% from 0.0% US ADP Payrolls 201K vs street 200K US ADP Payrolls previous revised down to 165K from 169K US trade balance ($40.9B) vs street ($44.0B) Canada trade balance ($2.9B) vs street ($2.1B) US crude oil inventories (1.9 mmbbls) vs street (2.2 mmbbls) UK BRC shop prices (1.9%) vs street (1.8%) UK Nationwide house prices 4.6% vs street 4.9% Italy unemployment rate 12.4% vs street 12.9% Eurozone unemployment rate 11.1% vs street 11.2% Eurozone retail sales 2.2% vs street 2.0% Service/non-manufacturing PMI reports: US Markit 56.2 vs street 56.4 US ISM 55.7 vs street 57.0 vs previous 57.8 UK 56.5 vs street 59.2 Germany 53.0 vs street 52.9 France 52.8 vs street 51.6 Sweden 58.2 vs street 56.0 Spain 58.4 vs street 59.4 Italy 52.5 vs street 52.8 Eurozone 53.8 vs street 53.3 Upcoming significant announcements include: TBA Brazil interest rate 0.50% increase to 13.75% expected 11:30 am AEST Australia trade balance street ($2.1B) 11:30 am AEST Australia retail sales street 0.3% 10:00 am BST Greece unemployment rate street 25.2% 12:00 pm BST Bank of England decision no changes to interest rate or QE expected 8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 278K 9:30 am EDT IMF Lagarde speaking 10:00 am EDT Canada Ivey PMI street 55.0 vs previous 58.2 10:30 am EDT US natural gas storage street 118 BCF CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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