After being crushed yesterday following the RBNZ’s surprise interest rate cut and bearish dollar talk, the kiwi dollar has been stabilizing near $0.7000 against USD. Today, we may get a better idea of whether it can stay there, start to rebound or continue lower as PMI and dairy prices may give another indication of which way the New Zealand economy is heading. NZD may also remain active against AUD. Yesterday the two dollars diverged as AUD rallied on positive employment data while NZD collapsed. Today we may see if the spread between the two may continue to widen or start to revert back toward historical averages. It’s been another big day for stock markets around the world. Building on yesterday’s China driven gains indices in Europe and North America started the day off strong but then trimmed their gains as the day progressed sending mixed momentum into today’s Asia Pacific trading. US stocks responded favourably to a strong retail sales report and steady jobless claims. The second 1%+ gain in three months provided more confirmation that the US economy has accelerated into spring again. This helped to shore up support for USD which gained back some ground against other majors and gold. European indices remain on a roller coaster, early indications that Greece and its creditors may be close to a deal crumbled after the IMF walked out of negotiations and headed back to the US. European indices gave back some of their early gains on the news, and EUR fell but European treasury yields declined on the day so traders seem to be taking all this in stride for now. Crude oil fell back today after the IEA confirmed that the supply war continues with Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE at record production levels and global supply growth outpacing demand growth. The retreat dragged on oil-sensitive currencies as well with NOK outpacing CAD to the downside due to its higher exposure to Europe which remains all fluxed up at the moment. Corporate News Twitter embattled CEO Richard Costolo to resign his position, to be replaced by co-founder Jack Dorsey on an interim basis Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US retail sales 1.2% as expected US retail ex auto 1.0% vs street 0.8% US jobless claims 279K vs street 275K US natural gas storage 111 BCF vs street 113 BCF US Atlanta Fed raised its Q2 GDP forecast to 1.9% from 1.1% Canada new house prices 1.1% vs previous 1.2% IEA global crude oil supply 96 mmbbl/d in May down 0.15 mmbbl/d over month but up 3.0 mmbbl/d over year, OPEC supply increased with record production from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE. Revised demand forecast up by 1.5 mmbbl/d. World Bank 2015 GDP growth forecasts World cut to 2,8% from 3.0% US cut to 2.7% from 3.2% France consumer prices 0.3% as expected Sweden consumer prices 0.1% vs street (0.1%) Greece Q1 unemployment rate 26.6% vs street 25.4% Upcoming significant announcements include: 8:30 am AEST NZ manufacturing PMI previous 51.8 8:45 am AEST NZ food prices previous (0.3%) 2:30 pm AEST Japan industrial production previous (0.1%) 8:00 am BST Spain consumer prices street (0.2%) 8:00 am BST Spain core CPI street 0.5% 9:30 am BST UK construction output street 0.5% 10:00 am BST Eurozone industrial production street 1.1% 8:30 am EDT US producer prices street (1.1%) 8:30 am EDT US PPI ex food and energy street 0.1% 10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 91.2 10:00 am EDT US 1-yr inflation estimate previous 2.8% 1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes rig count previous 868 CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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