arch certainly came in like a lion with indices charging to all-time highs to start the month, but it remains to be seen if the month will go out like a loin or a lamb.
It’s the last week of the month and the quarter, so there are a number of economic reports but for the second week in a row, politics may have the biggest impact on the quarter.
At the time of writing the US House of Representative vote on US health care reform has been delayed. If it passes, the coming week would see the bill move to the Senate for more negotiations. If it fails, it remains to be seen if the Administration will keep trying to make it work or move on to tax reform.
The rally of the recent months has been built on the notion that US reforms would be quickly adopted and implemented smoothly. Signs of a more bumpy political process could impact the outlook for corporate earnings and stock valuations. This is the week US politics could test the limits of traders patience.
It’s also a big week for politics in Europe. Following the weekend EU summit, the UK Government is expected to trigger Article 50 on Wednesday the 29th and the initial EU response is due within 48 hours, or by Friday the 31st. Sterling had been crushed following the referendum on uncertainty over what Brexit could mean. As the two sides outline their negotiating stances, traders can start to forecast potential impacts. GBP, EUR, other continental currencies and indices on both sides of the Channel could be active around these developments.
There are a number of month-end economic reports due this week. The last kick at Q4 GDP may get overshadowed by China and Chicago PMI reports which reflect more recent activity. The most important US indicator of the week is Core PCE inflation, a measure the Fed likes to use which may indicate how much pressure the Fed is under to keep raising interest rates.
Canada may attract some attention this week as well with monthly GDP due but more importantly, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaking on Tuesday. Governor Poloz in the past has indicated that the bank stands ready to cut interest rates if the economy were to get sideswiped by changes to US trade policies. Since then, PM Trudeau has been to Washington, President Trump said nice things about Canada in his big speech to Congress and on Friday, the US finally approved construction of the Keystone XL pipeline that Canada has been advocating for years. Any changes in the Governor’s tone could impact trading in the Loonie.
Economic news (North America time):
TBA US Healthcare reform goes to the Senate
Saturday EU Summit
Monday Germany IFO, retail sales
FOMC Evans, Kaplan speaking
Tuesday Bank of Canada Poloz speaking
FOMC George, Kaplan speaking
Wednesday UK Government to trigger Article 50
FOMC Rosengren, Williams speaking
Thursday US GDP update
Japan employment, industrial production, housing starts, construction
China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
Friday EU initial response to Brexit expected
US Chicago PMI, Core PCE inflation, consumer sentiment
UK and Canada GDP
There are no major earnings reports this week
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