One would think that this would be a slow week with a Canada holiday on Monday and a US holiday on Tuesday, but it’s a big week for economic news so trading could be quite active.
A lot of US traders are likely to take off Monday too, or perhaps the whole week so volumes are likely to be light. While this could mean quiet markets, if something big happens, thin trading could lead to higher volatility and bigger moves, creating trading opportunities.
The week kicks off with manufacturing PMI reports which could attract significant attention after China beat the street and US Chicago PMI spiked up to 65.7, way above street expectations. These early results suggest the global economy may have picked up in June and traders may look to US national and other results from around the world for confirmation.
Later in the week, focus shifts to employment and trade figures for the US and Canada. CAD could be particularly active around these reports which could indicate if the road is still clear for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates in July.
It’s expected to be a relatively quiet week for political developments with Congress in recess and the Senate looking to pick up on health care reform next week. With President Trump heading to Europe for the weekend G-20 summit, including a planned meeting with President Putin and potentially other leaders, trade may come back into the spotlight and we could see more sabre rattling that could impact trading.
Canadian traders note that 24-hour trading in many international indices, commodities and currencies opens as usual the afternoon of Sunday 2 July, and continues through Monday 3 July.
Economic/political news (North America time)
Manufacturing PMI for Australia, Japan
Japan Tankan survey
Manufacturing PMI for US, UK, Germany, etc
US construction spending
FOMC Bullard speaking
Australia RBA, retail sales
Canada manufacturing PMI
Service PMI for Australia, Japan, China, etc.
US FOMC Minutes, factory orders
Service PMI for UK, Germany, etc
US ADP payrolls, non-manufacturing PMI
US and Canada trade balance
FOMC Powell speaking
US non-farm payrolls
Canada employment, Ivey PMI
UK industrial production
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