In my weekly outlook video I have called this week The Super Bowl of Trading with so many potentially market moving developments on the way. Today was the opening kickoff with manufacturing PMI reports from around the world. For the most part reports have been slightly above or slightly below expectations with two big surprises that have impacted currency trading. Norway’s PMI plunged deep into contraction territory as though the floor collapsed from under it. This has sent NOK sharply lower today. On the other hand, Australia PMI staged a big rebound and moved back up into expansion territory, boosting AUD and NZD. The other interesting development over the weekend is that the Greece related selloff in Europe we saw on Friday hasn’t carried through into today with both stocks and EUR staging moderate rebounds on some short covering. Greek PM Tsipras blamed his creditors unreasonable demands for the lack of progress over the weekend, suggesting that even with negotiations ongoing the two sides appear to still be well apart. Noise and news surrounding Greece could flare up at any time and impact European trading right through Friday’s IMF payment deadline. The rally in crude oil that ended last week also appears to have run out of gas for now. Today’s correction has been moderate relative to Friday’s 5% gains. Oil could remain active through the week heading into Friday’s OPEC meeting where the cartel is expected to keep its production levels the same and its market share war going. CAD did not rally with oil on Friday due to the soft Canadian GDP report, and today it hasn’t really followed oil’s correction either. CAD has declined against USD at about the same pace as other majors like GBP and EUR, and has been in the middle of the resource group along with SEK, outperforming NOK by a wide margin but underperforming AUD and NZD. US markets have been somewhat quiet so far today but this could change as the morning progresses as US manufacturing PMI starts the run up to Friday’s payroll numbers. All US data this week may be viewed in terms of what it may mean for US interest rates and this month’s FOMC meeting. Strong data would point toward an earlier rate liftoff while weak data would suggest a later liftoff. Corporate News Intel agreed to acquire Altera for $16.7B, or $54.00 per share in an all-cash deal. Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: US personal income 0.4% vs vs street 0.3% US personal spending 0.0% vs street 0.2% US PCE core inflation 1.2% vs street 1.4% Germany consumer prices 0.7% unchanged Sweden retail sales 3.0% vs street 3.2% Australia commodity prices (19.5%) vs previous (20.5%) Australia inflation 1.4% unchanged Australia building approvals 16.3% vs street 20.5% Japan Q1 capital spending 7.3% vs previous 2.8% Manufacturing PMI reports: China official 50.2 vs street 50.3 China HSBC 49.2 vs previous 49.1 China official non-manufctrng 53.2 vs previous 53.4 UK 52.0 vs street 52.5 and previous 51.9 Eurozone 52.2 vs street 52.3 Germany 51.1 vs street 51.4 France 49.4 vs street 49.3 Italy 54.8 vs street 53.6 Spain 55.8 vs previous 54.5 Sweden 54.8 vs previous 55.7 Norway 46.6 vs previous 50.5 South Africa 50.8 vs previous 46.7 Japan 50.9 unchanged Australia 52.3 vs previous 48.0 India 52.6 vs previous 51.3 Upcoming significant announcements include: 9:45 am EDT ECB weekly QE purchase update 10:00 am EDT US construction spending street 0.8% vs previous 0.6% Manufacturing PMI reports: 9:00 am EDT Brazil previous 46.0 9:30 am EDT Canada previous 49.0 9:45 am EDT US Markit street 53.8 10:00 am EDT US ISM street 52.0 CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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