here have been a lot of cross currents running through global markets overnight with a number of conflicting themes rather than one overriding one driving trading.
Asia Pacific trading saw the Hang Seng rally on stronger China fiscal spending. AUD soared on a big rebound in Australia job creation, confirming the big gains posted by the US and Canada last week and the UK yesterday, and indicating a turnaround from weakness appears to be underway in several countries.
Today’s European trading finds EUR trending lower again on more dovish comments out of ECB President Draghi. European indices have stopped responding positively to dovish news, a sign that the prospects for more stimulus have been fully priced in. GBP is giving back some of its recent gains in normal backing and filling while the FTSE
is being held back by a big selloff at Rolls Royce following a profit warning. Norway is having a rough day with NOK and the local index falling over 1% with Brent crude under pressure again.
Crude oil continues to decline amid reports of a growing glut of supply at sea. A big rise in US API inventories weighed on crude yesterday, so today’s DOE report could attract a lot of attention with trading looking for confirmation or rejection of oversupply signs.
It’s also a big day for FOMC speakers with all of the Big 3 (Yellen, Fischer and Dudley) scheduled to talk today. The party line has been that December is a live meeting for a potential rate hike (unless things go off the rails badly between now and then) and even the most dovish of this year’s voters Chicago Fed President Evans has been coming around lately. A change to the writing on the wall could influence the markets, while confirmation could keep a tailwind behind USD.
Manulife Financial $0.43 vs street $0.45
EnCana $0.44 vs street $0.40
Peyto Exploration $0.85 vs street $0.82
Canadian Tire $2.62 vs street $2.02, 9% dividend increase
Alibaba generated CNY 91.2B in Singles Day sales with the industry total expected to exceed CNY 150B, apparently it had passed last year’s total by noon
JD.com Singles Day orders were up 130% over last year, it also reportedly passed last year’s total by noon
Significant announcements released overnight include:
World Gold Council Q3 gold demand up 8% over year with rising institutional demand more than offsetting falling consumer demand
US jobless claims street 270K
US continuing claims street 2,155K
Canada new house prices street 1.3%
Germany consumer prices street 0.3%
Sweden consumer prices 0.1% as expected
Eurozone industrial production 1.7% vs street 1.3%
Greece unemployment rate 24.6% vs street 24.9%
Australia jobs change 58K vs street 15K and previous (5K)
Australia full time 40K vs previous (14K)
Australia part time 18K vs previous 9K
Australia unemployment rate 5.9% vs street 6.2%
Australia participation rate 65.0% vs previous 64.9%
China new Yuan loans 513B vs street 800B and previous 1,050B
NZ manufacturing PMI previous 55.4
NZ food prices previous (0.5%)
NZ consumer confidence previous 114.9
Japan producer prices (3.8%) vs street (3.5%)
Japan core machine orders 7.5% vs street 3.1%
India industrial production street 4.9% vs previous 6.4%
India consumer prices street 4.9% vs previous 4.4%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
11:00 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.3 mmbbls
11:00 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.0 mmbbls)
11:00 am EST US DOE implied oil demand previous 15,696 mmbbls
9:05 am EST FOMC Bullard, Lacker speaking
9:30 am EST FOMC Yellen speaking
10:15 am EST FOMC Evans speaking
12:10 pm EST FOMC Dudley speaking
6:00 pm EST FOMC Fischer speaking
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