S markets started off the week with a sluggish tone. General reports from Black Friday Weekend suggest that sales were okay overall with online retailers doing very well (especially Amazon who appears to have put up 25%+ growth) while traditional retailers seem to have struggled a bit and could find margins crimped by deep discounts. US data was mixed with Chicago PMI, which has been really volatile lately, taking another dive, while Dallas Fed was not as bad as feared.
Trading action has the potential to really pick up from here through the rest of the week. AUD AND NZD have been climbing ahead of today’s RBA meeting where the central bank is expected to stay neutral in both the decision and tone, with the RBI expected to do the same later in the day.
The Fed has been signalling for several weeks now that it is considering raising rates at its next meeting, ringing last call for any other banks who want to get in any more stimulus before the Fed starts to lead the monetary trend back the other way. So far it appears the ECB is the only central bank likely to go back to the bar this week for a final round from the stimulus punchbowl.
Based on recent trading, a neutral to hawkish RBA has likely already been priced in and anything dovish would be a surprise that could knock the dollar back. It will be interesting to see also if Governor Stevens mentions metal prices or takes any more swipes at the dollar.
A ton of manufacturing reports could give traders an idea of how economies around the world have been doing in November. China and Japan reports could attract particular attention from traders trying to figure out if their economies are bouncing back and if recent stock market gains are justified or not.
In addition to PMI, tomorrow morning brings employment reports for Germany and Italy but these may be too little too late to have an influence on the ECB decision. CAD could be active around Canada GDP, the last major economic report before Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
IMF Special Drawing Rights Basket (starting in 2016)
USD 41.9% up from 41.7%
EUR 30.9% down from 37.4%
CNY 10.9% up from zero
JPY 8.3% down from 9.4%
GBP 8.0% down from 11.3%
US Chicago PMI 48.7 vs street 54.0 vs previous 56.2
US ISM Milwaukee 45.3 vs street 48.0
US Dallas Fed (4.9) vs street (10.0) and previous (12.7)
US pending home sales 2.1% vs street 4.3%
Germany consumer prices 0.4% vs street 0.3%
Germany retail sales 2.1% vs street 2.9%
Spain retail sales 5.8% vs street 4.4%
Sweden GDP 3.9% vs street 3.4%
Poland GDP 3.5% vs street 3.3%
Greece retail sales (3.2%) vs street (2.2%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
2:30 pm AEST Australia RBA interest rate 2.00% no change expected
4:30 pm AEST India RBI repurchase rate 6.75% no change expected
10:00 am AEST NZ QV house prices previous 14.0%
10:50 am AEST Japan capital spending street 2.2%
11:30 am AEST Australia building approvals street 5.7%
4:30 pm AEST Australia commodity index previous (19.8%)
8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment chnge street (5K)
8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment rate street 6.4%
9:00 am GMT Italy unemployment rate street 11.7%
10:00 am GMT Italy GDP street 0.9%
8:30 am EST Canada Sept GDP street 0.4%vs previous 0.9%
8:30 am EST Canada Q3 GDP street 2.3% vs previous (0.5%)
10:00 am EST US construction spending street 0.6%
12:45 pm EST FOMC Evans speaking
Manufacturing PMI reports:
12:00 pm AEST China official street 49.8
12:00 pm AEST China official non-manufacturing previous 53.1
12:45 pm AEST China Caixin street 48.3
12:45 pm AEST China Caixin services previous 52.0
9:30 am AEST Australia previous 50.2
12:35 pm AEST Japan previous 52.8
4:00 pm AEST India previous 50.7
7:30 am, GMT Sweden street 54.0
8:00 am GMT Poland street 52.6
8:00 am GMT Norway street 47.8
8:15 am GMT Spain street 51.7
8:45 am GMT Italy street 54.2
8:50 am GMT France street 54.2
8:55 am GMT Germany street 52.6
9:00 am GMT Greece previous 47.3
9:30 am GMT UK street 53.6
7:00 am EST Brazil previous 44.1
9:30 am EST Canada previous 48.0
9:45 am EST US Markit street 52.6
10:00 am EST US ISM street 50.5
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