Iran speculation and API inventories spark action in crude oil
Just when it looked like crude oil was ready to tumble, it roared back to life Tuesday. Renewed interest was sparked by reports that Iran may be willing to participate in steps to stabilize world oil production and support the price. Back in the spring, a potential deal among suppliers was scuttled when Iran refused to join while restoring production to pre-sanctions levels. A lot can happen in a month, so it remains to be seen how long these rumours can support the price. A surprise big 4.4 mmbbl increase in API inventories, however, may rain on this parade. Oil may remain volatile over the next 24 hours with traders now looking to tomorrow’s DOE report for confirmation or rejection.
North American markets finished the day up slightly. In addition to gains in resource sectors strong earnings from Bank of Montreal in Canada and Best Buy in the US provided more indications of a strong economy and positive environment for corporate earnings. BMO results were particularly strong in the US and steady in Canada setting the stage for more bank earnings over the course of this week. US new home sales reaching their highest level in nearly nine years also attracted support so tomorrow’s US hose prices and existing home sales may also attract attention.
It’s another light day for Asia Pacific news but NZD may continue to attract attention around New Zealand trade figures. Yesterday the Kiwi Dollar rallied after RBNZ Governor Wheeler indicated that while he remains open to cutting the OCR rate further he does not expect a series of multiple rate cuts either. He also noted concerns about the impact of low rates on an overheating property market, reducing speculation of a cut at the next meeting.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories 4.46 mmbbls
US new home sales 654K vs street 580K
US flash manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs street 52.6
US Richmond Fed (11) vs street 6 vs previous 10
France flash manufacturing PMI 48.5 vs street 48.8
France flash service PMI 52.0 vs street 50.5
Germany flash manufacturing PMI 53.6 as expected
Germany flash service PMI 53.3 vs street 54.4
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:45 am AEST NZ trade balance street ($325M)
3:00 pm AEST Japan leading index previous 98.4
7:00 am BST Germany Q2 GDP update street 3.1%
9:00 am BST Norway unemployment rate street 4.7%
9:00 am EDT US FHFA house prices street 0.3%
9:00 am EDT US existing home sales street 5.51M
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street (0.85 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.7 mmbbls)