Inflation in focus as stocks and oil rebound heading into Wed Fed meeting
Stock markets around the world have picked up on yesterday’s US rebound with positive momentum carrying through Asia Pacific and European sessions and back around to this morning’s US trading. Stock market declines heading into a potential rate hike are not uncommon but it appears that markets have been getting oversold opening the way fro a trading bounce.
Crude oil had been particularly depressed lately and has staged a particularly strong turnaround. Yesterday it dipped briefly below its 2008 low near $35.00 then rebounded in a classic bear trap washout bottom and has continued to rally this morning. The rebound has also helped to take some of the pressure off of energy stocks and oil sensitive currencies like CAD and NOK.
In other currency trading today, SEK has been climbing after the Riksbank did not cut its interest rate any deeper into the red. GBP is steady on today’s UK inflation reports. NZD has been surprisingly strong despite a GDP forecast cut while AUD appears to be getting some support from neutral RBA minutes helping it to offset its own GDP forecast cut.
Today brings the last round of US economic reports before tomorrow’s big Fed decision on whether to start raising interest rates. Recent data has been all systems go for liftoff with today’s consumer price report representing the final possible monkey wrench that could upset the Fed’s apparent intentions. Empire manufacturing could attract some attention as well but is usually less important.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far this morning.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Sweden interest rate (0.35%) no change as expected
UK consumer prices 0.1% as expected
UK core CPI 1.2% as expected
UK input producer prices (13.1%) vs street (12.4%)
UK output producer prices (1.5%) vs street (1.3%)
UK retail prices 1.1% vs street 0.9%
UK ONS house prices 7.0% vs previous 6.1%
Germany ZEW current 55.0 vs street 54.2
Germany ZEW expectations 16.1 vs street 15.0
Spain consumer prices (0.3%) as expected
Australia GDP government cuts 2015-16 forecast to 2.50% from 2.75%, lowers budget forecast to $37.4B deficit from a $35.1B deficit
NZ GDP government cuts 2015-16 forecast to 2.2% from 2.9%, lowers budget forecast to a $401M deficit from a $176M surplus
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EST US consumer prices street 0.4%
8:30 am EST US core CPI street 2.0%
8:30 am EST US real avg weekly earnings previous 2.1%
8:30 am EST US Empire manufacturing street (6.0) vs previous (10.7)
8:30 am EST Canada manufacturing sales street (0.5%)
9:00 am EST Canada existing home sales previous 1,8%