Talks between Greece and its creditors broke down again after only 45 minutes on the weekend making a potential Greek default and exit from the Eurozone look increasingly possible. The next big potential deadline looms this Thursday as many have suggested that a deal needs to get done at the EU meeting on order for parliaments to ratify it by the end of the month. This push toward last minute deals and votes on short timelines increasingly reminds me of the final attempts to salvage the ill-fated Meech Lake Accord in Canada in the spring of 1990 which ended in failure. That debacle sent Canada into over five years of political instability but eventually the country came out the other side stronger. The question is who will finally say enough is enough? With Grexit risk growing, it comes as no surprise that European markets have come under pressure today. EUR and CHF are among the worst performing majors while the Dax, IBEX and FTSEMIB are all down 2% or more. Greek stocks are down 5.2% so far today whiel Greek treasury yields have crept up over the 12% level. All things considered, the market reaction has been relative contained so far. Germany’s treasury yield has actually dropped today and is back near 0.8%, while gold is flat near $1.180. USD has strengthened but the top performing currencies have been AUD and NZD. Crude oil has been trading lower but this may be more due to the ongoing supply war than Europe fears. With limited news flow today, Greece may remain front and centre in traders’ minds. News from the Paris Air Show has been light so far which could impact aerospace stocks. US stocks have drifted lower following a soft Empire manufacturing report with traders looking ahead to Wednesday’s Fed meeting and forecasts. Corporate News Hudson’s Bay Company agreed to purchase German department store Chain Kaufhof for $3.3B Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: US Empire Manufacturing (1.9) vs street 6.0 Canada manufacturing sales (2.1%) vs street (0.5%) Eurozone trade balance €24.9B vs street €22.5B UK Rightmove house prices 4.5% vs previous 2.5% Sweden unemployment rate 8.0% vs previous 7.9% NZ service PMI 58.0 vs street 56.5 Singapore retail sales 5.0% vs street 5.4% Upcoming significant announcements include: 9:00 am EDT ECB President Draghi speaking 9:45 am EDT ECB weekly QE update 9:15 am EDT US industrial production street 0.2% 9:15 am EDT US manufacturing production street 0.3% 10:00 am EDT US NAHB housing market index street 56
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