It has been a wild start to the new week and things may remain active right through Friday’s US holiday and on into next week. Most of the attention has been on Greece where PM Tsipras has called a referendum for Sunday July 5th on the latest EU proposal. While a positive that the birthplace of democracy will be allowed to vote essentially whether it wants to pay the price necessary to stay in the Euro or not, this has created a lot of new uncertainty sending shockwaves through European markets. Greece also announced a bank holiday and stock market closure for the week leading up to the vote, with people in Greece limited to withdrawals of €60 per day. Questions remain about if EU and ECB support could even last until the vote with the bailout program set to end tomorrow. European stocks started out sharply lower with the Dax falling about 5% at one point but these losses have been trimmed with the Dax now down about 3%. Greece stocks are closed but one Greece ETF I found that trades in Germany is down 15%. The Greek 10-year treasury yield has soared over 350 basis points to 14.0% while others are mixed with Italy, Spain and Portugal all rising while Germany, France and the UK are lower with Germany still well below 1.0%, indicating growing fractures. EURUSD also started the day lower but has clawed back all its losses. NOK and CAD are among the underperformers today with crude oil prices down about 1.4%. Gold is up moderately but trading near $1,180 doesn't appear to be attracting much capital flight. The one defensive currency that has been attracting attention today is JPY but this may be more related to events in China than in Europe. Chinese stock markets continued to sell off Monday even after the PBOC cut interest rates in a bid to shore up support after Friday’s plunges. This indicates there may not be much the central bank can do as stock markets continue to unwind the huge gains they made back in March and April (nobody complained at the time when they were going up huge of course…) US markets may not be as exposed to Greece as their European counterparts but they are still intertwined with the global financial system and still may catch some of the impact with the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all trading down about 1% so far today. On top of all this turmoil in Greece and China there is a ton of economic news due out this week including monthly purchasing managers (PMI) reports and US nonfarm payrolls, so markets may remain active, creating opportunities for traders on both sides. Corporate News There have been no major corporate announcements so far this morning. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: China 1-year lending rate surprise cut by 0.25% to 4.85% China 1-year deposit rate surprise cut by 0.25% to 2.00% Canada industrial prices 0.5% vs street 0.3% Canada raw material prices 4.4% vs street 4.5% Japan retail sales 3.0% vs street 2.2% Japan industrial production (4.0%) vs street (2.3%) Norway retail sales (3.4%) vs street (1.5%) Spain retail sales 3.4% vs street 3.7% Germany consumer prices 0.3% vs street 0.5% Spain consumer prices 0.3% vs street 0.1% Upcoming significant announcements include: 10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street 1.3% CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
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