hile last week was a positive one for US markets, with new records set for the S&P500 on the back of a weaker US dollar, it was not positive for European equities
as they remained under pressure from a rising euro, as well as events in Greece.
Once again it is concerns about the timing of a US rate rise, as well as rising apprehension about an approaching end game for Greece, that appear to be dictating sentiment for investors.
Last week Greece avoided a potential default to the IMF
, by the narrowest of margins as it turns out after news at the weekend of the existence of a letter written by the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent to IMF chief Christine Lagarde over a week ago, that they wouldn’t be able to pay last week’s €750m, due to a lack of funds.
It was only after this letter was received that we saw the accounting sleight of hand that allowed Greece to make the IMF payment
, from its own IMF account, but the fact the letter was sent does raise questions as to how much longer the current impasse between Greece and its creditors can continue, and how long the Greek government will be able to continue to live day to day, hand to mouth.
Questions continue to be raised on the IMF’s continued participation in the Greece program,
without EU creditors having to consider further write downs on Greek loans in order to make the existing, as well as any new Greek program sustainable, in terms of debt ratios.
As well as the focus remaining on events between Greece and its creditors this week
, this week’s focus will be on a raft of economic data announcements from Europe, and the UK as well as the publication of a raft of central bank minutes from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as the latest rate decision by the Bank of Japan.
While concerns about a deeper slide into deflationary territory in Europe appear to have been averted for now, there are concerns that the recent recovery in European data could start to plateau as the euro recovers
. The latest German ZEW surveys as well as the latest French and German May PMI updates, aren’t expected to show much of an improvement on some of the more recent updates.
In the UK
the latest CPI inflation numbers could well see the UK slide into deflationary territory
for the first time ever, in data released tomorrow, while this week’s Bank of England minutes
aren’t expected to provide too many surprises in the wake of last week’s quarterly inflation report.
The main focus this week
in light of the continued weakness in US economic data will be the release of the most recent set of FOMC minutes
, though given some of the recent weakness seen in the data since the meeting at the end of April, these minutes could well be somewhat stale.
The sands of expectations do certainly appear to be shifting on the timing of a move on rates,
given recent comments by some Fed officials, with Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans,
suggesting a couple of weeks ago that there was no rush to move on rates, even if it meant not moving until early 2016 if required. Given that he made these comments prior to the most recent jobs and economic data, today’s speech in Stockholm,
could herald further clues as to his thinking on this matter.
– the euro continue to push on towards the 1.1500 area, and this remains a key obstacle to a move towards 1.1800. The current rally is starting to look a little stretched but the euro continues to find itself well supported on any dips. Only a fall below the 1.1050 level negates the current upward momentum for a move towards 1.2000.
– we may have seen a short term peak above 1.5800 at the end of last week, and this could prompt a drift back towards the 200 day MA near 1.5600. As long as we hold above the previous peaks at 1.5570, the upside momentum of previous days should remain intact.
– after finding support at 0.7115 last week the euro looks set to push back higher again, and having broken back above the 0.7250 area and 50 day MA we could well be set for a retest of the 0.7300 area, on the way back to the 0.7400 level.
– still range bound and stuck below the 120.70 level, we also have resistance at 119.70. Support remains near the recent range lows between 118.30 and 118.65.
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