Europe rallies again while US stagnates ahead of flash PMI
The rally in stocks that kicked off with yesterday’s ECB stimulus announcement has continued through Asia Pacific and European trading, but appears to be grinding to a halt in the US.
Many central banks have gone full throttle on stimulus and dovishness over the last week, leaving the Fed in the surprising position of being the most hawkish central bank at the moment as it has been leaning toward raising interest rates this year. While EUR has been crushed by the ECB stimulus, Fed hawkishness has USD rallying again today. US stocks, meanwhile, have levelled off on the likelihood that even if the Fed does not raise rates, new stimulus is unlikely either and the potential that the USD rally could start to drag on corporate earnings.
In this light, today’s US flash PMI report could be particularly significant heading into next week’s FOMC meeting. Some data suggested the US economy was a bit soft in December and today’s flash report will be the first figure to indicate if growth momentum has resumed in January or if things continue to slow. This could influence when the Fed might raise rates this year, so it has the potential to have a big impact on trading.
In other news, better than expected Japanese flash PMI and UK retail sales has helped to shore up support for JPY and GBP. Crude oil prices are mixed with Brent up a big and WTI down a bit but interestingly CAD is performing a lot better than NOK suggesting a US-Europe split in sentiment. AUD has been under pressure overnight and broke down through $0.8000, following NZD lower on continued concerns over commodity demand from China and elsewhere.
UPS profit warning, guides Q4 $1.25 below street $1.47, company blamed overinvestment in holiday season delivery capacity
McDonalds $1.13 vs street $1.22
Starbucks $0.80 in line, guides next Q to $0.64-$0.65 below street $0.68
Capital One $1.68 vs street $1.75
Japan flash manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs previous 52.0
China flash manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs street 49.5
France flash manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs street 48.0
France flash service PMI 49.5 vs street 50.8
Germany flash manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs street 51.7
Germany flash service PMI 52.7 vs street 52.5
Canada consumer prices 1.5% vs street 1.6%
Canada core CPI 2.2% vs street 2.3%
Canada retail sales 0.4% vs street (0.2%)
Canada retail ex auto 0.2% vs street 0.1%
UK retail sales 4.3% vs street 3.0%
UK retail ex auto 4.2% vs street 3.4%
Singapore consumer prices (0.2%) vs street (0.1%)
Singapore core CPI 1.5% vs street 1.6%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
9:45 am EST US flash manufacturing PMI street 54.0
10:00 am EST US existing home sales street 5.08M
10:00 am EST US leading index street 0.4%