After the gains of the last week or so it was perhaps inevitable that we'd start the new week with a little bit of a 4th July hangover,
though it was Europe's markets that bore the brunt of yesterday's down move, and not US markets, with all the main European benchmarks losing more than 1%, the exception being the FTSE
100 which lost 0.6%.
It would appear that in the wake of last weeks end of week US jobs euphoria, the realisation remains that the global growth outlook continues to remain challenging
, and though this week is light on the data front, yesterday's German data still had the capacity to offer investors a bit of a reality check.
Following on as it did from Friday's poor May factory orders data, yesterday's industrial production data was no better, sliding 1.8%, while April was also revised lower to -0.3%.
Having already seen weaker than expected PMI's, disappointing ZEW and IFO survey's,
it would appear that the German economy is suffering a bit of a slowdown, which doesn't bode well for the second half of this year.
Despite yesterday's sell-off and the fact that US markets were able to pull away from their intraday lows, today's European session should be able to open slightly higher
as we look towards the UK economy for some positive news.
That being said caution is likely to be the overarching sentiment this week as earnings season
gets under way this evening, ahead of the publication of the latest Fed minutes tomorrow.
There is also the belated realisation that a continued improvement in US data brings the potential for an eventual rise in rates
that much closer, and despite recent comments from Fed chief Janet Yellen about rates remaining low for some time to come, she won't be able to hide behind those words for ever.
Later this morning we get the latest industrial and manufacturing production data for May,
and given the recent positive PMI data there are high expectations for Q2 GDP growth
with some estimates that we could get a 1% print.
Today's data it is hoped will reinforce that narrative with expectations of a month on month rise of 0.4% on both measures
. On an annualised basis that equates to a 3.2% rise for industrial production and 5.6% for manufacturing.
Later in the day the NIESR publishes its latest estimate for GDP for June
, with an expectations that we'll get an increase on the May number which came in at 0.9%.
– the euros slide last week reversed the previous week's gains but has as yet done nothing to reverse the overall up trend. The broader range remains intact and while we hold above the 1.3500 level the risk of a move back towards 1.3700 remains more likely. The key support remains at 1.3485 where we have trend line support from the 2012 lows.
– 1.7180 has capped the pound for now, but we remain on course for further gains towards 1.7330, while above 1.7040. 1.7330 is the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs at 2.1160 and the lows at 1.3500 in 2009. Only a move below 1.6910 support delays the scenario above.
– the euro continues to fall as we look to move towards 0.7880, with the current rebound likely to find some selling around the 0.7960 area. We need to push through the 0.8035 area to stabilise and target 0.8085. The pressure remains on the downside while we remain below trend line resistance from the March highs now sitting just below the 0.8060 level.
– we remain on course for a move towards Ichimoku cloud resistance at 102.50, and towards the range highs just below 103.00. Any weakness should find support around the 101.80 level.
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