Oil prices continued to slip lower yesterday, pressuring the Bloomberg Commodity index to a marginal new all-time low at 74.04, as US prices briefly dropped below $30 a barrel for the first time since December 2003.
This weakness and overall bearishness initially acted as an anchor on equity markets,
but the pull factor slowly started to dissipate as the day went on and equity prices started to garner a little bit of support, pulling off their lowest levels of the day.
While oil analysts competed to outbid each other with their predictions of how low oil prices might fall, with numbers as low as $10 being bandied about, short positions have continued to build up to record levels, with the selling pressure showing few signs of relenting, despite a fairly big draw in API inventory data late last night.
In this context today’s weekly US crude inventory will in all likelihood be another market mover
with a build of 1.9m barrels expected, up from last week’s 5.1m draw.
The main premise behind the arguments for further weakness in the oil market has been predicated on the belief
that we could well see further strength in the US dollar, as opposed to the impact of future Iranian production hitting the market by the middle of this year, if sanctions get lifted as widely expected.
This US dollar strength is based on the expectation that we could well see further rate rises in the coming months
and if Richmond Fed President Lacker, a renowned hawk, gets his way we could well see around four at the very least if his comments last night were any guide. Fortunately he isn’t on the voting roster this year, so this would appear highly unlikely.
Despite the overriding pessimism around oil prices both European and US markets managed to finish yesterday in positive territory,
briefly snapping their recent correlations with the fortunes of the oil price.
Whilst concerns about oil prices are one factor preoccupying investors
, another worry is the state of the Chinese economy, as well as the reaction function of Chinese authorities to the recent turmoil on currency and stock markets.
The recent Chinese central bank inspired pullback in the offshore Yuan may well have stabilised the Chinese stock market for now
but it is becoming increasingly clear that the yuan will eventually have to drift lower, even if it has stabilised in the past day or so.
This morning’s latest China December trade data showed that exports only fell 1.4%, instead of the 8% decline expected
which suggests that the recent currency falls may be starting to have an effect. Imports fell 7.6%, which was again a slight improvement and better than expected. These improvements do appear to suggest that while the economy is slowing things may not be nearly as bad as markets had been fretting about and as such we look likely to see a positive open this morning in Europe, even if Chinese stock markets don’t appear to be basking in the improvement that much.
Later today we get the release of the Fed’s Beige Book
and this is likely to be particularly interesting not only in the context of wage and inflation pressure in the US economy but also given the recent sharp deterioration seen in the most recent manufacturing indicators for December, from the ISM as well as the sharp drop in Chicago and Dallas manufacturing PMI’s.
Will the Beige Book also reflect a deteriorating outlook
for the manufacturing sector as illustrated by recent surveys?
– we got the move to 1.0950 overspilling towards 1.0970 before sliding back. We need to see the euro hold above the 1.0820 level to suggest a further move higher towards 1.1100. Only a move back below 1.0800 argues for a retest towards the 1.0600 level where we have trend line support from the all-time lows posted in October 2000 at 0.8220. A break below 1.0600 could see a return to 1.0465 and last year’s low.
– another disappointing day yesterday as the pound slid ever close to the 2010 lows at 1.4230, finding some interim support at 1.4350. We need to recover back through 1.4650 to stop the rot and stabilise for a rebound towards 1.4820.
– the euro continues to find resistance near the 0.7550 area and while below the 0.7595 area the risk remains for a sharp pullback. At this point we could go either way but the risk remains for a move back towards the 0.7410 area, with a break below arguing for a return to the 0.7280 area.
– the recent rebound from the 116.65 area needs to get above the 118.30 area in the short term to suggest a return towards the 120.00 area.
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