In a week of market extremes yesterday saw Wall Street put in its best day since 2011, which given we’ve seen the worst ever points fall ever in a single day earlier in the week more or less sums up how markets have been moving this week.
After a fairly positive session on Tuesday, European markets slipped sharply lower yesterday
after a late last hour sell-off in the US and a topsy turvy session in Asia kept investors off balance for most of Wednesday.
It’s certainly not been a market for the faint hearted the past few days
with more strong moves in the US overnight as prices continue to play their games of snakes and ladders with investors, as in contrast to Tuesday night, where US markets hit an air pocket and slid sharply, last night we hit an updraft and blew higher on a stock market thermal
, with the Dow turning from being sharply lower after European markets closed, to go on a sharp 500 point move higher, to close nearly 4% higher, which is likely to have a similar positive effect on today’s European open.
So after six days of declines why the sudden turn around?One explanation could well be comments from New York Fed President William Dudley, who is also a permanent member of the FOMC,
when he said that the case for a September rate rise was less compelling than a few weeks ago
and could well have been the final nail in the coffin for a move next month.
His admission that there was still “excess slack in the US labour market” didn’t sound like a man in a hurry to push rates higher.
At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious recent volatility and the continued slide in oil prices should have clued a lot of people in on that already
, but there are still those who still remain of the opinion that a September move remains on the table. Let’s just say it’s less likely now than it was last week despite yesterday’s positive durable goods numbers.
Certainly Dudley’s comments show that US policymakers have serious concerns about events in China
and the potential ripple out effects, with some notable names calling for extra stimulus in the form of extra QE, Larry Summers, being one such advocate, which does seem somewhat of an overreaction.
Even so, just because we’ve seen the best one day US stock market performance since 2011, its going to take a few more days like yesterday to restore confidence
to a market that has had to endure more twists and turns than a corkscrew.
The US economy will continue to remain in focus today with the latest revision to Q2 GDP which is expected to get revised slightly higher
as a result of recent upward revisions to June data, including yesterday’s durable goods. An upward revision to 3.2% from 2.3% is expected with most of that coming from the services sector. Personal consumption is also expected to be nudged higher to 3.1%
The really important data is due tomorrow with the latest PCE Inflation dat
a, which is the Feds preferred measure of price targeting, and this is expected to remain at 1.3%, well below the 2% target.
– the euro continues to remain under pressure after peaking at 1.1700 earlier this week. There is a risk we could slip back towards 1.1220 but remain of the view that a move to 1.1800 remains possible, while above the 200 day MA, currently at 1.1330.
– yesterday’s sharp drop through trend line support at 1.5670 has seen the pound fall back through 1.5530 towards the 100 day MA at 1.5460. We could fall all the way back towards the 200 day MA at 1.5370 without undermining the positive trend currently in place. We need a move back above the 1.5600 area to argue for a move back towards 1.5720.
– the 200 day MA continues to cap the upside here at 0.7360. While below here the risk remains for a move back towards the 0.7230 level. A close above the 0.7360 level suggests a move to the next resistance which sits at the May highs at 0.7485.
– while below the 120.40 level which is where we saw the double top break out the risk remains for a move towards the 115.00 level. A move above 120.40 targets a move back to 123.00.
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