Despite the initial sell-off post the FOMC minutes earlier this week markets appear to have realised that they may have over reacted somewhat with regard to the prospect of a December taper.
Having said that the better than expected weekly jobless claims, under any other circumstances, would certainly have helped reinforce the view that a taper is coming
, but given a few hours to digest the contents of the minutes and what they actually said, while a taper may be closer than it was at the beginning of the week the smart money still remains on some form of action in the New Year and not December, hence the pullback in US yields below 2.80% late yesterday.
This would seem to account for the sharp rebound in US markets last night
and another record close for the Dow, above 16,000 and should translate into a positive European open this morning despite some worrying weakness in French economic data yesterday.
While markets remain concerned about the French economy
and its prospective slide back into contraction in Q4 the German economy appears to be going from strength to strength despite the fact that there has been no government to speak of since early September. Maybe there is an argument for adopting that model worldwide, keep the politicians busy so they can't do any damage.
Following on from the better than expected ZEW survey earlier this week
, and improving PMI data in manufacturing and services yesterday
, the acid test really comes with today's German business IFO data for November. While the ZEW is a pretty meaningless number, given it is largely large investors talking their books, and the DAX
at record highs pretty much speaks for investor confidence, German businesses ultimately have a much more pragmatic view of the world.
The latest IFO numbers for November a
re expected to paint a modestly improving picture of the German economy with the business climate index expected to improve from 107.4 to 107.9.
German Q3 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.3%.
Also on the docket today Greek Prime Minister Samara goes to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel
where we will likely continue to push the line on some form of debt relief as discussions between the Greek government and the troika stall on how wide the current budgetary gap is. This seems to have all the makings of a short meeting.
EU finance ministers are also meeting today
and Spain and Italy's budgetary plans are likely to come under scrutiny after both countries submitted rather optimistic budgets for 2014 which drew some raised eyebrows shall we say from EU officials who thought that certain growth projections were on the optimistic side.
- we've seen a rebound back to 1.3480 so far and the risk remains that we could move all the way back towards the highs this week as well as 1.3620. We need to break below this weeks low at 1.3400 to target 1.3300 and then on to 1.3000
- the pound continues to push towards the channel range highs after the break above 1.6110 earlier this week. The 1.6250/60 level remains the big resistance on the topside. Support remains at the 1.5880/90 area. It's going to take something substantial to break the pound out of its recent range, with the bias remaining to the downside. Only a sustained break below 1.5900 has the potential to target a move towards 1.5750.
- downside bias remains as we retest the recent lows at 0.8305. The risk remains for a move below the 0.8320 level towards 0.8280, 50% retracement of the entire up move from the 2012 lows and the high this year. Resistance on the day can be found at 0.8370, 0.8420 and 0.8470.
- the US dollar has finally pushed beyond the September highs at 100.60, but it's been slow progress despite US long term yields firming up substantially yesterday.
Behind 100.60 we then have 103.75 which is the next obstacle to a move to 105.00.
If the US dollar breaks below the 99.20 level we could see a deeper fall towards 98.50.
Support remains just below the 200 day MA at 97.80 at 97.20 trend line support from the 25th Feb lows.
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