Although it's a holiday in the US, UK and Germany, markets that are open are off to an active start in the wake of weekend developments. Election results in Spain and Poland confirmed results from earlier this year in Greece and the UK indicating a clear disenchantment with the EU project as it stands and a desire for change now coming from all four corners of the continent. 1) SouthWest: Over the weekend, the two establishment parties including PM Rajoy’s People’s Party lost a lot of ground in local and regional elections to anti-austerity challengers Podemos (who won the mayoralty of Barcelona and came up just short of a win in Madrid) and Ciudadnos. New parties gaining ground sets the stage for what could be a very hotly contested Federal election this fall. The IBEX has dropped 2% on growing political uncertainty, pulling Italy’s MIB down 2% on the day as well. 2) NorthWest: Talk in the UK over the weekend has been over who will and who will not be able to vote in the upcoming UK referendum on whether to stay in or leave the EU. PM Cameron is preparing to start negotiations with the EU on a new deal for Britain. Considering Greece has been talking to a brick wall for months, there doesn’t appear to be much of a mood for deals in the EU establishment leaving me to think he may not get very far either. 3) NorthEast: In Poland, despite presiding over one of the strongest economies in Europe, President Komorowski lost his re-election bid to challenger and now incoming President Andrzej Duda, signalling a strong desire for change across the continent. Interestingly, PLN has been steadily strengthening today on the news. 4) SouthEast: Greece indicated over the weekend that it is likely to miss one of its upcoming payments to the IMF which means it could be in default as soon as June 5th. After months of negotiations, it looks like the endgame for a Greece deal may come in the next few weeks one way or another. With the EU now in the position where it may have to fight fires in all directions, today’s EUR breakdown under $1.1000 could be a sign of things to come, particularly if disenchantment with the establishment works its way from the edges into the core. For north America today, the US is closed for holiday, and there hasn’t been any major news for Canada. Crude oil is trading down slightly and CAD has weakened a bit along with it. Canadian energy stocks could see some pressure from oil weakness while the banks could be active as traders prepare for this week’s earnings reports. Corporate News There are no major corporate announcements this morning. Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: Japan trade balance (¥53B) vs street (¥351B) Japan exports 8.0% vs street 6.0% Japan imports (4.2%) vs street (1.1%) Economic reports due later today include: There are no major announcements scheduled for North America today
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