Both the Dow and the S&P have broken out to new all-time highs this morning after getting a boost from today’s nonfarm payrolls report, while USD has been holding steady after a brief knee-jerk reaction down.
Although the headline nonfarm payrolls number looks disappointing, once you factor in a 22K upward revision to last month’s number job growth was stronger than expected. This confirms that the US economy is accelerating out of winter. It appears to be moving into a sweet spot, strong enough to create a positive environment for business and corporate earnings but not so strong that the Fed would need to accelerate tapering beyond the current path.
Canada also posted strong job growth for March as full time jobs continued to grow and part-time jobs bounced back from February. The loonie has truly taken off on the news that Canada’s economy is doing better than many had thought heading into this year with USDCAD
decisively smashing down through the $1.1000 barrier that had been in place lately.
Gold and crude oil are both rallying today but this seems to be driven more by rising expectations for resource demand and the potential for future inflation from a stronger economy than political concerns. Resource currencies are also outperforming with AUD and NZD following closely behind the soaring CAD as capital flows back into risk markets.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US nonfarm payrolls 192K vs street 200K, previous revised up to 197K from 175K
US private payrolls 192K vs street 200K, previous revised up to 188K from 162K
US unemployment rate 6,7% vs street 6.6%
Canada jobs change 42.9K vs street 22.5K and previous (7K)
Canada full-time jobs 12K vs previous 19K
Canada part-time jobs 30K vs previous (26K)
Canada unemployment rate 6.9% vs street 7.0%
UK Halifax house prices 3M/yr 8.7% vs street 9.4%
Germany factory orders 6.1% vs street 6.8%
Germany construction PMI 52.5 vs previous 53.6
Germany retail PMI 50.2 vs previous 52.1
France retail PMI 50.0 vs previous 48.4
Italy retail PMI 46.5 vs previous 43.1
Eurozone retail PMI 49.2 vs previous 48.5
Greece retail sales (4.3%) vs previous (6.7%)
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EDT Canada Ivey PMI street 59.0 vs previous 57.2