Dow dives as ADP Disappoints, SEK rallies
US indices are dropping again this morning after the wind was taken from their sails as ADP payrolls indicated the US job market hasn’t been quite as rosy as people had thought. May payrolls increased by 179K while April payrolls were revised down to 215K from 220K and March payrolls were revised down to 198K from 209K. This means instead of going for three 200K plus months in a row, the US was only able to put up one lately with two near-misses.
USD has been dropping through the morning, while gold has rebounded a bit in response. EUR has been steadily climbing as Eurozone GDP and producer prices came in as expected. Service PMI numbers were mixed with Eurozone countries coming in a bit soft while the UK and Sweden beat the street. Swedish industrial production also beat expectations.
The result of this has been a rally in SEK as pressure on the Riksbank to cut interest rates eases. Action in EUR, meanwhile, suggests that speculation on potential ECB stimulus from tomorrow’s meeting continues to get cut back from full-on Japan style QE to maybe a small rate cut, ie an incremental move rather than a revolutionary one.
CAD is underperforming other majors today ahead of this morning’s Bank of Canada decision at 10:00 am ET. Although no changes are expected, trading suggests many are expecting a dovish statement from the central bank. Governor Poloz has stated in the past that he believes FX markets usually get currency levels correct, some may be speculating that he may try to talk down the rebounding loonie as his counterparts in Australia and New Zealand have done with their own Dollars lately.
Press reports suggest that Alibaba is considering August 8th 8/8/14 for its IPO, 8 being a lucky number in Chinese tradition.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US ADP payrolls 179K street 210K vs previous 220K
US trade balance ($47.2B) vs street ($40.8B)
Canada trade balance ($0.6B) vs street $0.2B
Sweden industrial production 0.6% vs street (1.2%)
Sweden industrial orders (1.0%) vs previous (11.2%)
Sweden service production 4.5% vs street 3.0%
Eurozone producer prices (1.2%) as expected
Eurozone GDP 0.9% as expected
UK shop prices (1.4%) vs street (1.3%)
Australia GDP 3.5% vs street 3.2% vs previous 2.8%
NZ commodity prices (2.2%) vs previous (4.0%)
Service PMI reports include:
Australia 49.9 vs previous 48.6
Japan 49.3 vs previous 46.4
India 50.2 vs previous 48.5
Sweden 58.5 vs street 56.6 vs previous 57.8
Spain 55.7 vs street 56.1
Italy 51.6 vs street 51.4
France 49.1 vs street 49.2
Germany 56.0 vs street 56.4
Eurozone 53.2 vs street 53.5
UK 58.6 vs street 58.2
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EDT Canada interest rate 1.00% no change expected
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street (1.0 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT US gasoline inventories street 0.2 mmbbls
2:00 pm EDT US beige book regional economic report
Upcoming service PMI reports include:
9:00 am EDT Brazil previous 50.4
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 58.2
10:00 am EDT US ISM street 55.5