This morning’s trading finds European indices stabilizing after yesterday’s big selloff as traders look ahead to tomorrow’s ECB targeted LTRO loan issue. If this trance is as poorly received as the one in September, the ECB may need to step up its asset purchase efforts next month. Greece remains under pressure on political uncertainty with its sticks falling another 2% and its treasury yields climbing toward 8.5%.
Crude oil has resumed its downtrend after a one-day pause after OPEC cut its 2015 customer demand forecast by 0.3 mmbbl/d to 28.9 mmbbl/d, the lowest level since 2003. This is well below the cartel’s current production quote of 30.0 mmbbl/d. This change has been blamed on lower global demand in general and increased supply from non-OPEC sources (read US shale production). We could see additional activity on oil later this morning when us inventory numbers are released.
This slump has dragged down the oil sensitive CAD and NOK and could impact energy weighted indices like the S&P/TSX. As it is, the FTSE
with its higher weighting is up only 0.1% today, trailing the 0.7% gain in the Dax.
US indices have been trading lower this morning, giving back some of yesterday’s afternoon rally. Continued volatility and uncertainty has kept interest in defensive plays high. Gold and silver are holding on to yesterday’s big gains so far while JPY continues to rebound.
Later today we could see significant activity on NZD with the RBNZ meeting today. While no change to interest rates is expected, the statement may once again be more important for the currency. The RBNZ intervened in forex markets back in the summer to drive down the dollar and traders will be watching to see if the central bank continues its efforts to talk down NZD as the RBA did to AUD last week. The statement along with food price inflation due a little later in the afternoon could be the difference between a triple bottom or the start of a new downleg for the beleaguered NZD.
There is no major corporate news out today so far.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
Japan producer prices 2.7% vs street 2.6%
China producer prices (2.7%) vs street (2.4%)
China consumer prices 1.4% vs street 1.6%
Australia consumer confidence 91.1 vs previous 96.6
France industrial production (1.0%) vs street 0.1%
Norway consumer prices 1.9% as expected
Norway producer prices (6.6%) vs previous (3.4%)
UK trade balance (£2.0B) vs street (£2.4B)
Greece industrial production (0.7%) vs previous (5.1%)
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EST Bank of Canada Poloz, Wilkins press conference
10:30 am EST US crude oil inventories street (2.7 mmbbls)
3:00 pm EST NZ interest rate 3.50% no change expected
9:00 am NZDT
4:45 pm EST NZ food prices previous 0.0%
10:45 am NZDT