ollowing a sluggish start, stocks gained strength through the north American trading day while crude oil soared as capital continued to move out from defensive havens toward risk markets. This was seen most clearly in the big divergence between crude oil and gold with WTI soaring and gold crumbling meaning this is more than just a USD play.
In currency markets AUD remains top dog, building on the positive response to yesterday’s RBA meeting. Today, AUD could be active on Australia trade figures. On the flip side, NZD has been totally hammered by weak New Zealand employment growth announced this morning which keeps the pressure on the RBNZ to cut rates again in future. Rounding out the resource dollars, CAD rallied through the day in tandem with the oil price.
EUR and continental currencies had a mixed day starting out lower on dovish comments from Sweden’s Riksbank’s Floden and ECB President Draghi. The latter confirmed he would like to see a full review of stimulus at the December meeting and is considering further options.
Today not only brings service PMI from around the world for traders to chew on but also a renewed focus on the US. In addition to ADP payrolls there are five FOMC speakers Wednesday including the Big 3 of Yellen, Fischer and Dudley who have another chance to signal to the street how seriously the Fed is considering interest rate liftoff at its December meeting.
Tesla Motors ($0.58) vs street ($0.60) guides Q4 deliveries to 17K-19K vehicles above street 16.5K
Significant announcements released overnight include:
NZ employment change 1.5% vs street 2.5%
NZ unemployment rate 6.0% as expected
Singapore PMI 48.9 as expected
Singapore electronics sector 48.6 vs street 49.0
US ISM New York 65.8 vs street 45.7 and previous 44.5
US factory orders (1.0%) vs street (0.9%)
US factory orders ex transport (0.6%) vs previous (0.8%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
11:30 am AEDT Australia trade balance street ($2.9B)
11:30 am AEDT Australia retail sales street 0.4%
12:00 am GMT UK BRC shop prices previous (1.9%)
TBA Poland interest rate 1.50% no change expected
8:15 am EST US ADP payrolls street 180K vs previous 200K
8:30 am EST US trade balance street ($41.0B)
8:30 am EST Canada trade balance street ($1.75B)
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 2.25 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.1125 mmbbls)
10:30 am EST US DOE implied oil demand previous 15,662 mmbbls
5:30 am EST FOMC Brainard speaking
8:00 am EST FOMC Harker speaking
10:00 am EST FOMC Yellen testimony
2:30 pm EST FOMC Dudley speaking
7:30 pm EST FOMC Fischer speaking
Service PMI Reports:
9:30 am AEDT Australia previous 52.3
12:35 pm AEDT Japan Nikkei previous 51.4
12:45 pm AEDT Chian Caixin previous 50.5
1:15 pm AEDT Singapore Nikkei PMI previous 51.4
4:00 pm AEDT India previous 51.3
7:30 am GMT Sweden street 55.5
8:15 am GMT Spain street 55.4
8:45 am GMT Italy street 53.5
8:50 am GMT France street 52.3
8:55 am GMT Germany street 55.2
9:00 am GMT Eurozone street 54.2
9:30 am GMT UK street 54.5
9:45 am EST US Markit street 54.5
10:00 am EST US ISM street 56.5
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