he ramifications of Donald Trump’s press conference continued to impact US markets particularly stocks and the Dollar. What he didn't say has been seen as more important for trading than what he did say. While his comments regarding drugs were seen as a negative for biotech and pharmaceutical companies, more importantly his lack of comments about fiscal stimulus and regulatory reform indicated to the street that the economy is one of many priorities not necessarily the top priority. The realization that there could be bumps in the road and that politics doesn't move at the speed of the market has sparked profit taking in markets that had price din Trump to perfection.
The drop in the dollar sparked major rallies and breakouts across currency markets particularly gold, AUD, JPY, NZD, EUR and CAD. US indices also sold off early in the day. There was a partial reversal in the afternoon creating significant intraday trading swings
and opportunities that may continue through to the weekend. GBP was hit particularly hard later in the day after the announcement that UK PM plans to give a big speech on Brexit next week rattled traders.
It has been a quiet week for economic data so far but this changes today starting with Chinese trade figures. Signs of improvement in the Middle Kingdom’s economy have improved sentiment toward China-sensitive markets and upgraded the prospects for resource demand boosting markets like copper. Today’s trade figures could provide confirmation or rejection so commodities and resource currencies could be particularly active.
Tomorrow morning brings US retail sales with traders looking to see if the Trump honeymoon continued into December. Retailer profit warnings suggest the results could be mixed. Producer prices may also attract attention from traders looking for signs of inflation which could impact how many times the Fed raises interest rates this year.
Crude oil continued to bounce back today and could be active through Friday’s Baker Hughes drill rig count. While the number of rigs usually increases in the winter because some locations can only be accessed when the ground is frozen, amid talk of increased US oil patch investment in 2017 whether the number of rigs operating is higher or lower than this time last year could attract attention.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US jobless claims 247K vs street 255K
US natural gas (151 BCF) vs street (143 BCF)
Canada house prices 0.2% vs street 0.3%
Italy industrial production 3.2% vs street 2.0%
Eurozone industrial production 3.2% vs street 1.6%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
7:00 pm EST FOMC Yellen town hall
TBA China trade balance street $47.5B
TBA China exports street (4.0%) vs previous (1.6%)
TBA China imports street 3.0% vs previous 6.7%
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore retail sales street 1 7%
8:30 am EST US retail sales street 0.7% vs previous 0.1%
8:30 am EST US retail ex auto street 0.5%
8:30 am EST US producer prices street 1.6%
8:30 am EST US core PPI street 1.5%
9:00 am EST Canada existing home sales
9:30 am EST FOMC Harker speaking
10:00 am EST US consumer sentiment street 98.5
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes rig count previous 665 year ago 664
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