It was a relatively light day for economic news so there was a lot of focus on China’s trade balance and political developments in Europe to start the week.
The big drop in Chinese imports put a big headwind in front of many major world indices. Although one would have thought that this would raise concerns about its demand for resources, resource currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD continued to rebound from depressed levels. Today’s China inflation numbers may attract attention from traders today as low inflation pressure may give the PBOC more scope to ease monetary policy
further if needed.
Meanwhile, more tough talk ahead of this week’s big meetings weighed on European indices and EUR. On Wednesday western leaders are to meet with Russia PM Putin to talk over what to do about the fighting in Ukraine while EU leaders are expected to talk to Greece about how to deal with its debt problems. The spectre of increased political tensions and the risk a mistake could have wide ranging implications has had some traders moving back into defensive havens like gold, JPY and CHF.
Crude oil rallied again in the morning after OPEC cut its production growth forecast for non-OPEC countries, but faded in the afternoon after traders recognized that OPEC nor anyone else is planning actual production cuts and that the market share war among suppliers continues unabated.
CSC $1.18 vs street $1.12
Significant announcements released overnight include:
OPEC cut production growth forecast for non OPEC producers by 420K bbls/d, including a 170K cut for the US. It attributed the reduction to cuts in exploration and capital budgets but traders should note that non-OPEC production is still expected to grow 850K this year.
Canada housing starts 187K vs street 178K
Germany trade balance €19.1B vs street €16.0B
Germany exports 3.4% vs street 1.0%
Greece industrial production (3.8%) vs street (1.5%)
Upcoming significant announcements include:
11:30 am AEDT Australia house prices street 7.1%
12:30 pm AEDT China consumer prices street 1.0%
12:30 pm AEDT China producer prices street (3.8%)
TBA China new Yuan loans street 1,350B vs previous 697B
7:45 am GMT France industrial production street (1.3%)
9:00 am GMT Norway consumer prices street 1.9%
9:00 am GMT Italy industrial production street (0.7%)
9:30 am GMT UK industrial production street 0.5%
9:30 am GMT UK manufacturing prodn street 2.0%
10:00 am EST US wholesale sales street (0.3%)