raders spend another day acting like deer caught in the headlights with nobody seeming to want to make any moves ahead of today’s big address to Congress from President Trump. Since the election, stocks have been screaming upward with the Dow climbing from 17,500 election night to 20,800 today. This has priced in huge expectations that President Trump will bring in policies that drive major earnings growth.
So far, the new administration has been big on promises but short on details on dollars and timing, and it is getting time for them to deliver. In this speech, the street will likely be looking for details on tax reform, health care reform, infrastructure spending and military spending. In the coming days, a preliminary budget request form the White House is expected which is when the rubber could really hit the road.
There is a huge gulf between the instant speed of markets to react to something and the glacial speed at which government moves. Even if things go well, it could be late 2017 or even 2018 before initiatives are funded, implemented and reach corporate earnings, and there is a risk of bumps along the way even with the Republicans controlling Congress. What remains to be seen is if tonight’s comments will be enough to keep the street from running out of patience.
Tonight the comments could have a bigger impact on indices and currencies while tomorrow the focus could turn to stocks and sectors as traders sort out the winners and losers, who is likely to be impacted or benefit sooner, and who is farther down the list of priorities.
Markets appear to be coiling up like springs looking for a reason to move. CAD and MXN have been under pressure today with traders concerned the President could talk tough on trade tonight. Depending on what he says, these currencies could stage a move in either direction.
President Trump’s comments may also have an impact on tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision and statement. While the Canadian economy has been improving, Governor Poloz indicated at the last meeting that the central bank stands ready to cut rates if US actions on trade impact Canada. Since the last Bank of Canada meeting, Canadian PM Trudeau, Foreign Minister Freeland and Finance Minister Morneau have all been to Washington, so it will be interesting to see of the Bank’s tune changes.
Other currencies could also be impacted if his comments impact the US Dollar, Fed rate hike expectations, or political risk assessments.
There is a ton of other news due over the next 24 hours that also could move the markets to start the month. Manufacturing PMI reports from around the world may attract attention. Today’s Chicago PMI report and Richmond Fed manufacturing report were better than expected, indicating a strengthening US manufacturing sector.
Australia markets could be active around today’s GDP and commodity price reports. The Chinese reports may also
In the US, monthly core PCE inflation and construction spending, along with the Beige Book regional economic report could spark more speculation around the possibility of a March US interest rate increase. SF President Williams indicated a March rate hike is “very much on the table for serious consideration”, and there are more Fed speakers on the way but traders may focus more on data until talks from Yellen and Fischer on Friday.
Crude oil also has the potential to be active over the next day or so. Reports suggest OPEC is up to 94% compliance with agreed production cuts. Today’s API and Wednesday’s DOE inventory reports could attract some attention from traders wondering if last week was the end of big inventory builds for now or a blip.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US Q4 GDP update 1.9% vs street 2.1%
US Q4 personal consumption 3.0% vs street 2.6%
US Q4 core PCE inflation 1.2% vs street 1.3%
US advance goods trade bal ($69.2B) vs street ($66.0B)
US Chicago PMI 57.4 vs street 53.5 and previous 50.3
US consumer confidence 114.8 vs street 111.0
US Richmond Fed 17 vs street 10 vs previous 12
Canada industrial prices street 0.5%
Canada raw material prices street 1.2% vs previous 6.5%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
4:30 pm EST US API crude oil inventories
6:40 pm EST FOMC Bullard speaking
9:00 pm EST US President Trump speech to Congress
8:50 am AEDT Japan Q4 capital spending street 0.8% vs previous (1.3%)
11:30 am AEDT Australia GDP street 2.0% vs previous 1.8%
4:30 pm AEDT Australia commodity index previous 55.7%
12:00 am GMT UK BRC shop prices street (1.4%)
7:00 am GMT UK Nationwide house prices street 4.1%
8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment chng street (10K) vs previous (26K)
8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment rate street 5.9%
1:00 pm GMT Germany consumer prices street 2.1% vs previous 1.9%
9:00 am GMT Italy GDP street 1.0% vs previous 0.8%
8:30 am EST US personal income street 0.3%
8:30 am EST US personal spending street 0.3%
8:30 am EST US core PCE inflation street 1.7%
10:00 am EST Canada BoC interest rate 0.50% no change expected
10:00 am EST US construction spending street 0.6% vs previous (0.2%)
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 3.0 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.5 mmbbls)
1:00 pm EST FOMC Kaplan speaking
2:00 pm EST FOMC Beige Book
Manufacturing PMI Reports:
9:30 am AEDT Australia previous 51.2
11:30 am AEDT Japan previous 53.5
12:00 pm AEDT China official street 51.2
12:00 pm AEDT China non-manufact previous 54.6
12:45 pm AEDT China Caixin street 50.8
9:30 am GMT UK street 55.8
8:55 am GMT Germany street 57.0
8:50 am GMT France street 52.3
8:45 am GMT Italy street 53.5
8:15 am GMT Spain street 55.8
8:00 am GMT Norway street 51.7
9:00 am GMT Greece previous 46.6
9:30 am EST Canada previous 53.5
9:45 am EST US Markit street 54.5
10:00 am EST US ISM PMI street 56.2
10:00 am EST US ISM prices paid street 68.0
10:00 am EST US ISM new orders previous 60.4
10:00 am EST US ISM employment previous 56.1
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