t’s been a very busy morning with lots of trading action. The US ADP payroll and GDP reports have sparked significant moves and swift reversals. The ADP figure came in a bit below expectations, which knocked USD down a bit initially. This was quickly reversed by a spectacular US Q2 GDP report. In the spring the US more than overcame its winter weather weakness and posted a strong gain of 4.0% over year, way above expectations, while personal consumption and Core PCE inflation also came in above expectations.
The GDP report has had a positive impact on both stocks and USD, although the Dow has been unable to retake 17,000. The market action suggests that between rising employment (the street appears to be happy with 200K+ on ADP payrolls in the wake of GDP), rapidly growing GDP and rising inflation may pressure the Fed to act sooner on raising interest rates than previously thought.
This brings even more focus on today’s FOMC decision due at 2:00 pm EDT. While another $10B taper is widely expected, traders may look to the statement for signs of any shift away from previously dovish talk or dissent in the vote on the hawkish side. Last meeting the Fed moved up the timetable for the end of QE3 to October from December and traders may look to see if there are any further shifts in direction.
We also may see significant action in individual stocks today in reaction to ongoing earnings reports. The prime focus may be on Twitter which was up 30% in aftermarket trading at one point on the back of stronger than expected user growth. There were other companies that also beat expectations that may attract attention such as Garmin and Amgen.
We have the potential for a lot of trading action not only through today but right through the rest of the week. On top of a lot more earnings reports highlighted by Tesla Motors Thursday, Friday’s manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls may come into even stronger focus as traders look for signs of whether the hot US economy has been able to keep its momentum going into the summer.
Twitter ($0.02) vs street ($0.01) sales $312M vs street $282M, 271 million members vs street 267 million
Garmin $1.02 vs street $0.75, sales $778M vs street $708M, raises guidance to $2.95-$3.05 from $2.50-$2.60
Amgen $2.37 vs street $2.07 raises FY guidance to $8.20-$8.40 from $7.90-$8.20, plans to lay off 12-15% of its employees
American Express $1.43 vs street $1.38
US Steel $0.17 vs street($0.28)
Thomson Reuters $0.51 vs street $0.47
Cenovus Energy cash flow $1.57 vs street $1.28
CGI Group $0.72 vs street $0.73
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US ADP payrolls 218K vs street 230K vs previous 281K
US Q2 GDP street 3.0% vs previous (2.9%)
US Q2 personal consumption street 1.9% vs previous 1.0%
US Q2 core PCE inflation street 1.9% vs previous 1.2%
Canada industrial prices street 0.2%
Canada raw material prices street 0.6%
Spain GDP 1.2% vs street 1.1% vs previous 0.5%
Spain consumer prices (0.3%) vs street (0.1%)
Sweden GDP 1.9% vs street 2.4% vs previous 1.9%
Sweden consumer confidence 99.9 vs street 102.2
Norway unemployment rate 3.2% vs street 3.4%
Germany consumer prices 0.8% as expected vs previous 1.0%
Japan industrial production 3.2% vs street 5.2%
Economic reports due later today include:
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street (0.9 mmbbls)
2:00 pm EDT US FOMC decision and statement $10B taper of QE to $25B expected
MetLife, Shutterfly, Whole Foods, and many others report earnings after US exchanges close today.
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