Bank of Canada leads off a series of potentially big central bank developments
Many stock and commodity markets around the world have rebounded overnight. Conflicting reports of a possible truce in Ukraine or at least steps toward it has been given the credit for the rally, but that doesn’t completely hold water as it doesn’t explain the big rebound in Brent crude which should be seeing its political risk premium evaporate on the reports. Wheat and corn are both down over 1.0% which can be explained by the potential for peace just in time for the harvest.
More likely, much of today’s trading, particularly in Europe and Japan has been driven by speculation that more stimulus could be on the way. European service PMIs came in soft overnight putting pressure on the ECB to add even more stimulus at tomorrow’s meeting, but I find it hard to believe that they would announce more before seeing the impact of the targeted LTRO lending that was announced in June and starts later this month. Traders may also be looking to tonight’s Bank of Japan meeting for action following a Cabinet reshuffle.
US indices spiked in a knee-jerk reaction to the Ukraine truce reports, sending the Dow through 17,150 to a new all-time high but they have already started to backslide after Russia denied the reports. Today’s trading becomes quite significant with the potential for key reversals. This afternoon’s Beige Book regional economic report could be quite positive considering that many of the regional numbers that came out last week were well above expectations.
CAD is bouncing back a bit today along with other majors and could be active around this morning’s Bank of Canada decision. AUD rallied overnight after RBA Governor Stevens indicated he is reluctant to lower interest rates further, which along with the takedown in miners yesterday weighed on the S&P/ASX index.
With the Canadian economy starting to pick up, traders may look at the Bank of Canada statement closely to see if Governor Poloz comes out with a balanced outlook or if the bank starts to back away from dovish side.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
China non-manufacturing PMI 54.4 vs previous 54.2
China HSBC service PMI 54.1 vs previous 50.0
Australia service PMI 49.4 vs previous 49.3
Australia GDP 3.1% vs street 3.0% vs previous 3.5%
Japan service PMI 49.9 vs previous 50.4
India service PMI 50.6 vs previous 52.2
UK service PMI 60.5 vs street 58.5
Germany service PMI 54.9 vs previous 56.4
Sweden service PMI 54.2 vs previous 60.1
Spain service PMI 58.1 vs previous 56.2
Italy service PMI 49.8 vs previous 52.8
France service PMI 50.3 vs previous 51.1
Eurozone retail sales 0.8% vs street 0.9%
Economic reports due later today include:
9:00 am EDT Brazil service PMI previous 50.2
9:45 am EDT ISM New York previous 68.1
10:00 am EDT Canada interest rate 1.00% no change expected
10:00 am EDT US factory orders street 11.0%
2:00 pm EDT US Beige book