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Tricks

Brendan Mulhern on developing a macroeconomic strategy

Brendan Mulhern is a global strategist and economist at Newton Investment Management, a firm that is part of BNY Mellon [BK] — the seventh-largest asset manager in the world with $1.9trn in assets under management.

After joining Newton Investment Management in 2017, he quickly took to developing the firm’s top-down macroeconomic investment approach. However, such an approach was not always popular at the firm.

“I think many equity analysts see themselves as purists [and] they're dismissive of a top-down approach or macroeconomics,” Mulhern says.

He is sympathetic though: “The way that macroeconomic research is conducted in many places, it doesn't really have much relevance or add any value to [equity analysts’] data in the job of picking stocks”.

Mulhern was able to implement a “macro, top-down process” that he felt dovetailed with what equity analysts at Newton were already doing. “I think I have had relative success in doing that too,” he adds.

 

For more detail on Mulhern’s industry-leading strategy, listen here.

 

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When providing tactical recommendations to the investment management team, Mulhern draws on key insights he’s learnt from Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock’s book, Superforecasting, in which the authors identify patterns of successful forecasters.

“The [authors] found that [successful forecasters] tend to all have a series of frameworks, or that they're effectively going around applying different frameworks that they'll absorb into their own process,”

It’s a constant process of iteration, much like the markets, Mulhern considers.

 

Listen to the full interview and many more like it, on Opto Sessions.

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CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.

CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinion on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

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