Historically, births in the British Royal Family have been cause for celebration in the UK and around the world. Ahead of the birth of the second royal baby due around the 15th of April, we analyse the market reaction to previous births in the House of Windsor suggesting that the good cheer and well wishes can spill over into stock markets as well. • Market response to previous British Royal Family births using the US Dow Jones Industrial Average • Trading patterns in correlation with previous royal birth dates • The estimated date of arrival for the Duke and Duchess of Cornwall’s baby For the purposes of this analysis Colin has looked at how markets traded around the births of the first two children of King George VI, Queen Elizabeth II, Prince Charles and Prince William. The returns for the US Dow Jones Industrial Average were used rather than the FTSE, as daily data was available farther back for the US market. The upside of this is that it shows that a UK royal birth is a global event not just local with a wide reaching influence on sentiment. Overall, results show that British Royal Family births have been greeted warmly by the market with positive returns for the day, week and month after the birth date as the news spread around the world. Generally speaking, returns have been a bit higher for the first born child than the second. While boys did better on the first day after, over the first week and first month, the market has responded particularly positively to girls. Looking at the reaction to the previous Royal Birth in the 21st Century, Prince George was born in July 2013 and results were mixed. However, this could be explained by the fact that he was born at the very start of the historically weakest time of the year for stocks which runs from mid-July to mid-October. In comparison, the market response to the last April Royal Birth; that of Queen Elizabeth II, was resoundingly positive. What could be the big day? Furthermore, while collecting the trading data above, there were some interesting patterns in Royal Birth Dates. Looking at all of the above births plus those of Prince Andrew and Prince Edward, uncovered the following: • All nine of the royal births studied fell between the 15th and 22nd of their respective months with three on the 21st two on the 19th and two on the 15th • First children tended to be born in the first half of the week (Sunday - Wednesday) while later children tended to be born in the latter part of the week (Tuesday – Saturday) • Based on this unscientific study, our guess is the Royal Family’s next bundle of joy could arrive on Wednesday April 22nd.
Will the arrival of a new British royal offer good cheer to the markets?
01:00, 13 April 2015