Markets rebound as failure to panic suggests seasonal low may be near
Picking up on the US Friday afternoon rally stock markets around the world are positively in the green to start the week. These gains come despite a number of negative economic announcements lately including Friday’s weak nonfarm payrolls, a cut to Chinese GDP forecasts, and weak service PMI reports today especially from the UK and Australia.
While the news would seem to give traders every reason to go even more bearish, stocks, commodities and resource currencies have stopped falling and even some of the poster child selloff stocks of last week like Glencore have stabilized. While some might say this all means a delay to rate hikes and more stimulus on the way I think what this means is that the declines of recent months have priced in a lot of negative news already.
August lows have been holding, which suggests the summer panic may be passing. With the middle of October approaching and Q3 earnings season about to start, we appear to be nearing the end of the seasonally weakest time of the year for stocks, and today’s action suggests a late year rebound may be getting underway.
Interestingly, another place we haven’t seen any panic over the weekend is at the Fed. St.Louis Fed President Bullard dismissed the low numbers as having no effect on his call for a rate hike, while Vice Chair ignored the numbers completely at his speech on Friday.
Over the weekend, Boston Fed President Rosengren made a number of comments. He is a voter in 2016, but his comments give an indication of what the fence sitters are thinking:
He would still like to see a rate hike this year, and would prefer to start early and raise gradually rather than wait too long and have to raise aggressively and risk making a mistake.
He sees the soft jobs report as validation for not raising in September but did not indicate it as a reason to hold off any longer.
He noted the job growth slowdown could be due to the US nearing full employment
He would like to see 2.0-2.5% growth in the second half to justify a rate hike (the only thing is GDP forecasts have been coming down on trade concerns making tomorrow’s trade balance report more important than usual)
So it appears rate liftoff on 2015 still on the table unless something really bad happens and if Friday’s payrolls weren’t enough, one has to wonder what it would take to knock the Fed off course? The other big question is does the Fed pass on October and wait for December hoping for the data to improve, or do they proceed in October to avoid the risk of disruptions from a possible government shutdown?
US markets could be active through the day particularly around the service PMI reports mid-morning.
Although it won’t move the markets, comments today on Ontario’s economic future from Premier Wynne could be interesting, particularly if she sheds any light on whether the lower loonie is helping the province’s manufacturing base recover and if the province’s fiscal situation is in the Spain/Portugal or the Greece level of difficulty.
Potash Has ended takeover negotiations with K+S citing a drop in the value of potash stocks and a lack of cooperation from the other side.
Bombardier rumours circulated over the weekend about a potential cash infusion from Québec’s Caisse de depôt de placement
Significant announcements released overnight include:
World Bank cuts its China GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 7.1%
Australia TD inflation 1.9% vs previous 1.7%
Eurozone retail sales 2.3% vs street 1.7%
Sweden industrial production 4.7% vs street 1.5%
Sweden industrial orders 9.4% vs previous 10.6%
Sweden service production 1.9% vs previous 2.8%
Service PMI reports
Australia 52.3 vs previous 55.6
Japan 51.4 vs previous 53.7
Singapore PMI 51.4 vs previous 50.8
UK 53.3 vs street 56.0
Germany 54.1 vs street 54.3
France 51.9 vs street 51.2
Italy 53.3 vs street 54.1
Spain 55.1 vs street 58.7
Sweden 57.0 vs previous 52.4
Upcoming significant announcements include:
9:45 am EDT ECB weekly QE update
9:45 am EDT US Markit service PMI street 55.6
10:00 am EDT US ISM non-manuf PMI street 57.5
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