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Bearish DAX reversal drags down world markets heading into nonfarm payrolls

CMC Markets

Thursday, European trading took the spotlight with some major swings around today’s ECB meeting. Expectations that President Draghi would bring in new stimulus were running at a fever pitch just before his press conference. The Dax briefly reached a new all-time high above 10,500 then was slammed after it quickly became clear that a decision on more stimulus was going to be punted off to next year. This sent the Dax into a tailspin busting 10,000 and taking a 200 point hit off its high to finish the day near 9,800. Meanwhile, the ECB decision to wait and see if the interest in its December round of targeted LTRO loans will be any better than the September fiasco ignited a rebound in EUR, which had been depressed going into the meeting on stimulus expectations. EUR traded up over 1% then tailed off later in the day after reports circulated that the ECB is looking at more asset purchases in all kinds of asset classes but not gold or shares depending on the source. Whether this was backpedalling after the negative reaction to the press conference or some European version of the plunge protection team remains to be seen, but all the measures to date have done nothing to turn around the downtrend in the ECB’s balance sheet, and the central bank is losing credibility on the matter. European indices finished the day lower pretty much across the board with the FTSE falling the least, while US indices spent most of the day flat to slightly lower with traders unwilling to push through headwinds ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls, particularly after yesterday’s minor ADP disappointment. Heading in the weekend, it’s a light news day for Asia Pacific and European news, so the stage is now clear for the US and Canadian employment reports to take the spotlight. In terms of the US, a reading of 200K-250K will likely be seen as business as usual. A reading above 250K would suggest more pressure to raise interest rates sooner which could boost USD and sink stock indices, while a reading under 200K could have the opposite effect. Canadian jobs are widely expected to retrench a bit after a strong couple of months with the positive US growth effect possibly offset by the impact of falling energy prices on the oilpatch. Another positive reading could give the loonie another boost. Corporate News There is no major corporate news after the US close today. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: UK interest rate and QE 0.50% and £375B no change as expected ECB interest rate 0.30% no change as expected ECB deposit rate (0.20%) no change as expected Brazil interest rate 0.50% increase to 11.75% as expected ECB forecasts for Eurozone 2014 GDP cut to 0.8% from 0.9% 2015 GDP cut to 1.0% from 1.6% 2016 GDP cut to 1.5% from 1.9% 2014 inflation cut to 0.5% from 0.6% 2015 inflation cut to 0.7% from 1.1% 2016 inflation cut to 1.3% from 1.4% US jobless claims 297K vs street 295K Canada Ivey PMI 56.9 vs street 52.5 US natural gas (22 BCF) street (35 BCF) Upcoming significant announcements include: 9:30 am AEDT Australia construction PMI previous 53.4 7:00 am GMT Germany factory orders street 0.0% 8:00 am GMT Spain industrial output street 1.5% 8:30 am GMT Sweden industrial production street 0.2% 9:00 am GMT Norway industrial production street 0.4% 10:00 am GMT Eurozone GDP street 0.8% 8:30 am EST US nonfarm payrolls street 230K vs previous 214K 8:30 am EST US private payrolls street 225K 8:30 am EST US unemployment rate street 5.8% 8:30 am EST US avg hourly earnings street 2.1% 8:30 am EST US participation rate street 62.8% 8:30 am EST Canada employment change street 0K vs previous 43K 8:30 am EST Canada full-time jobs previous 26K 8:30 am EST Canada part-time jobs previous 16K 8:30 am EST Canada unemployment rate street 6.6% 8:30 am EST Canada trade balance street $0.1B 8:30 am EST US trade balance street ($41.2B) 10:00 am EST US factory orders street 0.0% FOMC members Fischer and Mester speaking