he trends that started in yesterday’s Asia Pacific session continued through European and North American trading today. US traders in particular, shifted gears on Fed speculation away from immediate tapering today's anticipation of QE3 running at a higher level for longer than previously anticipated.
The decision by Lawrence Summers, who had been widely considered the most hawkish of the top candidates to replace Fed Chair Bernanke, to drop out of the race rocked world markets sending stocks higher and USD sharply lower. The soft Empire Manufacturing number added more evidence to the case for waiting more data before starting tapering.
In currency markets, the main beneficiary today was AUD. While Fed sentiment has shifted from neutral back to easing, the RBA went the other way at its last meeting shifting from an easing bias toward netural. AUD could be active through the day today as RBA minutes may provide more colour on why the RBA changed its outlook. NZD also started out strong on the RBNZ’s even more hawkish outlook but drifted back in what appears to be normal backing and filling. It’s important for traders to be wary though if NZD spikes up too fast as the RBNZ has already intervened in currency markets this year. JPY picked up against the greenback but struggled against other majors.
Commodities had a tough morning after the US and Russia agreed to a deal to have Syria’s chemicals weapons turned over and destroyed by the middle of next year. Into the afternoon, however, gold and oil had started to rebound suggesting that Syria selling may have run its course.
Some inflation numbers are due out but they appear more likely to have an impact where GBP has had a big rally in recent sessions, over the US where attention remains squarely focused on the two day FOMC meeting and Wednesday’s decision, policy statement, projections and press conference.
Highlights of overnight announcements include:
US empire manufacturing 6.2 vs street 9.1
US industrial production 0.4% vs street 0.5%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:30 am AEST Singapore electronic exports street 0.5%
11:30 am AEST RBA meeting minutes
11:30 am AEST Australia vehicle sales previous 3.0%
9:30 am BST UK consumer prices street 2.7%
9:30 am BST UK producer input prices street 3.0%
9:30 am BST UK producer output prices street 1.8%
9:30 am BST UK retail prices street 3.2%
10:00 am BST Germany ZEW Expectations previous 44.0
10:00 am BST Germany ZEW current previous 18.3
12:00 pm BST Turkey interest rate 4.50% no change expected
8:30 am EDT US consumer prices street 1.6% vs previous 2.0%