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AUD drifts into RBA minutes

CMC Markets

It’s been a mixed start to the week for global stock markets. Yesterday’s big selloff in Asia Pacific markets did not carry through to Europe where indices rebounded from last week’s weakness. North American trading showed the indecisiveness among traders with the S&P/TSX strong on the day, the Dow up slightly, the NASDAQ down slightly and the S&P flat. That the confirmation of a recession in Japan and softish US data didn’t have a big impact on stocks in other regions, or on JPY for that matter, suggests that the big JPY collapse of the last few weeks may have already priced in expectations of a weak Japanese economy. Positive seasonality may also be helping to prop stocks up. For currencies and commodities, it has been a day of consolidation with the US rebounding within its current range. Crude oil fell back slightly on the USD rebound while gold has held in really well, giving back less than $5.00 of Friday’s $40.00 advance. AUD and CAD have started the day off soft on continued concerns about the health of many major economies around the world and the potential impact a dropoff in economic activity could have on the demand for resources and resource currencies. As the day has progressed, European currencies have sold off even faster but the dollars remain down against USD. AUD has the potential to be active today on RBA minutes with traders particularly interested in any comments about the value of the dollar and any threats of intervention like the ones from the RBNZ that have been overhanging NZD at $0.8000 lately. Tomorrow brings inflation data for the UK but the biggest impact on currency trading this week may be the Bank of England and Fed minutes on Wednesday. Corporate News Agilent $0.88, guides next Q to $0.39-$0.43 vs street$0.47 Urban Outfitters $0.35 vs street $0.41 Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US Empire manufacturing 10.1 vs street 12.0 US industrial production (0.1%) vs street 0.2% US manufacturing production 0.2% vs street 0.2% Canada existing home sales 0.7% vs previous (1.4%) UK Rightmove house prices 8.5% vs previous 7.6% Sweden unemployment rate 7.5% vs street 7.3% Norway NOK trade balance 31.6B vs previous 21.6% Eurozone trade balance €18.5B vs street €18.0B Upcoming significant announcements include: 10:00 am AEDT Australia leading index previous 0.2% 11:30 am AEDT Australia RBA meeting minutes 9:30 am GMT UK consumer prices street 1.2% 9:30 am GMT UK core CPI street 1.6% 9:30 am GMT UK retail prices street 2.3% 9:30 am GMT UK producer input prices street (8.3%) 9:30 am GMT UK producer output prices street (0.2%) 9:30 am GMT UK ONS house prices street 11.2% 10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW current street 1.7 10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW expectations street 0.5 10:00 am GMT Eurozone ZEW expectations previous 4.1 8:30 am EST US producer prices street 1.3% 8:30 am EST US PPI ex food and energy street 1.5% 10:00 am EST US NAHB housing mkt index street 55