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Asia slump sets up Europe for further declines
00:00, 13 June 2013
Despite the fact that it remains unlikely that either the Fed or the Bank of Japan are likely to start reining back on their stimulus measures any time soon, investors appear to have decided that the mere prospect of an exit strategy is enough of a reason to look at pulling money off the table on a fairly comprehensive scale. Ever since talk of Fed tapering was first mentioned US bond yields have edged higher and money has leaked out of emerging markets and emerging market currencies, sending them lower as the US dollar becomes more attractive. This is not the only factor as rising political tensions in Greece as well as the unrest in Turkey has seen investors pull money out of these countries, while European peripheral bond yields have started to edge higher again as the recent rally in Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt comes to a sharp halt as investor realise that high yields do not a safe investment make. Of course there is the other reason is that for all of the stock market gains of recent months investors have finally woken up to the fact that current stock valuations are not supported by fundamentals in the current low growth environment, and all the QE in the world can't address that particular issue. It certainly makes the upcoming Fed meeting the key event for next week. Having seen US markets close lower once again last night and in so doing post their first three day losing streak this year, Asia markets have also been under pressure with the Nikkei set to test 12,280 a 50% pullback of the up move from the November lows of 8,619 to the peaks last month at 15,983. This is likely to see Europe's markets open lower for the fourth day in a row this morning and with it we could see a test of a number of key support levels. The last time we saw four successive daily declines on the FTSE100 was in April, and on that occasion we bounced off the 6,220 area, which has supported the current rally since early February. With little in the way of economic data to turn sentiment around investors will be hoping that today's US retail sales data for May and latest weekly jobless claims numbers help arrest the recent slump. Expectations are for an improvement in retail sales to 0.4% from 0.1%, while weekly jobless claims are set to come in at 345k, unchanged from last week. EURUSD - the euro continues to make new 3 month highs touching 1.3360 but so far not closing through the key 1.3345 61.8% retracement of the 1.3710/1.2750 down move. Any move through here could target 1.3435. While below the 1.3345 level the risk remains for a move back towards the 1.3100 level and the 100 day MA. GBPUSD - the key level on the cable remains the 1.5700 area where we have the 200 day MA. Behind that we have 1.5785, 61.8% retracement of the 1.6370/1.4835 down move. While below here the pound remains susceptible to a pullback towards the 1.5410 area. Momentum continues to remain positive, however while below the 200 day MA caution is warranted at these levels. A move below 1.5400 reopens up a move back towards 1.5280. EURGBP - the euro bounced off 0.8475 trend line support from the May lows at 0.8395 yesterday keeping the euro range trade play intact with the air thin anywhere near to the 0.8600 level. The 0.8520/30 level and 200 week MA continues to act as a broad pivot with the 0.8410 March and April lows being the multi day support on the down side. USDJPY - we've broken through the cloud support at the 95.25 and the move lower now targets 93.60 which would be a 38.2% pullback of the 77.50/103.70 up move. A move back through 95.40 is needed to stabilise and push back towards the highs this week. To stabilise we need to see a move back through the 100 level. CMC Markets is an execution only provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.