One of the most fascinating markets today is crude oil where Brent and WTI are advancing 0.5%-1.0% showing really strong resilience following this week’s big jump in US inventories. It hasn’t been that long since a big build would have knocked both prices down 5% over a day or two. This indicates traders are focusing more on signs of falling US production and reports of recent comments from the IEA suggesting the oil market surplus could fade away in the second half of 2016 as non-OPEC (read US shale) production declines. Speculation of a potential supply freeze deal this weekend may also be helping to support energy markets.
Currency markets have been active overnight and into this morning. GBP has been sliding overnight with reports UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn intends to join the Remain campaign not generating much enthusiasm. Sterling has started to rebound a bit following the Bank of England meeting where no change was expected. The MPC minutes were not as dovish as some had speculated with no members overtly pushing for a rate cut and the bank still thinking rates are more likely to rise over time. They did indicate that Brexit uncertainty appears to be having some impact on business activity and delaying decisions which could impact the economy over the next couple of months until the vote, but really this was to be expected in a close race.
Asia Pacific markets have also been active overnight. AUD and Australia stocks rallied on the back of a better than expected Australia jobs report, confirming the trend of improving employment growth seen in the US and Canada this month as well. NZD went the other way and fell on a drop in New Zealand manufacturing PMI while SGD took a plunge after the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced a surprise easing move.
There’s still more news to come today that could move the markets. Wells Fargo continues a big day for US bank earnings. US inflation figures could either leave the door open a crack or put the final nail in the coffin on April Fed interest rate hike speculation and may have a bigger impact than today’s Fed speakers.
Bank of America $0.21 as expected. Revenues $19.5B vs street $20.3B
BlackRock $4.25 vs street $4.30
Delta Air Lines $1.32 vs street $1.30
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Bank of England decision 0.50% and £375B no changes to interest rates or QE as expected
Eurozone consumer prices 0.0% vs street (0.1%)
Eurozone core CPI 1.0% as expected
Australia employment change 26K vs street 17K
Australia full-time (9K) vs previous 16K
Australia part-time 35K vs previous (16K)
Australia unemployment rate 5.7% vs street 5.9%
Australia consumer inflation estimate 3.6% vs previous 3.4%
NZ BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI 54.7 vs previous 56.0
Singapore GDP 1.8% vs street 1.7%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EST US consumer prices street 1.1%
8:30 am EST US core CPI street 2.3%
8:30 am EST US real average weekly earnings previous 0.6%
8:30 am EST US jobless claims street 270K
8:30 am EST Canada new house prices street 1.8%
9:00 am EST Canada Teranet/NB house prices previous 6.5%