With earnings season winding down and corporate news flow drying up, we find ourselves at the cusp of the historically seasonally weakest and most volatile time of the year for markets, running through to mid-October. The bull market that had been underway since the US election in November has finally started to show major cracks and near term tops may now be in place.
This week may give a better indication of whether the next couple of months could see a deep correction of 5-10% in the markets or if they could spend the time grinding their way sideways. North Korea provided the initial flashpoint for a correction, but there are a lot of other risks out there that could impact markets in the coming months.
This week in the US, earnings reports are dominated by major retailers. So far the reaction to department store results has been negative as Macy’s was pounded down 10%. On the other hand, Canadian Tire did well and rallied on its report which suggests traders may look at retailers on a sector by sector or case by case basis. Wal-Mart and Home Depot are the headliners. Results from the online divisions of big retailers could impact sentiment toward Amazon as well.
For Canada, the main focus of the week is on the start of NAFTA renegotiations. Opening stances may indicate how far apart the sides are on major issues and how easy or difficult it may be to reach a deal. Around the start of talks, President Trump could ramp up the rhetoric on Twitter related to trade. NAFTA talks could have a big impact on trading in CAD this week.
Economic/Political news (North America time):
Sunday eveningJapan GDP
China retail sales, industrial production
NZ service PMI
Canada Freeland speaking on NAFTA
US retail sales, Empire manufacturing
Canada existing home sales
NAFTA renegotiations start for US, Canada, Mexico
US energy inventories, housing starts, FOMC minutes
US Philly Fed, industrial production, leading index
UK retail sales
US consumer sentiment
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