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FX Analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (7 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Toppish configuration below 1.0790 key resistance

(click to enlarge chart)

EUR/USD has managed to stage the expected retreat; a whisker right below the 1.0790 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 2 June 2022 (it printed an intraday high of 1.0765 on 3 June).

No change, maintain bearish bias and a break below 1.0640 near-term support (neckline of the minor “Double Top”) may see an acceleration of a potential drop towards 1.0590 and 1.0550 in the first step. However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.0790 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 1.0865/1.0890 (also the medium-term descending trendline resistance in place since 10 February 2022 high).

GBP/USD – Watch the 1.2590 key resistance to maintain bearish bias

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Watch the 1.2590 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the bearish bias on the GBP/USD. A break below 1.2470 near-term support increases the odds of a further potential drop towards 1.2340.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2590 invalidates the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the recent 27/30 May swing high of 1.2660 before the next resistance zone of 1.2770/2810 (also the former major ascending channel support from 1 June 2021 high).

USD/JPY – 132.00 met, at risk of minor pull-back before new potential rally

(click to enlarge chart)

USD/JPY has staged the expected rally for a new 20-year high, surpassed the previous 28 April/9 May 2022 swing high area of 131.20 and hit the 132.00 resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 2 June 2022.

Elliot wave/fractal analysis and the hourly RSI oscillator (now at an extreme overbought level of 77%) suggests the risk of a minor pull-back at around 132.20 towards 130.95/45 with a maximum limit set at the 130.15 tightened key short-term pivotal support before a new potential upleg materialises towards the next resistance zone of 132.80/133.15.

On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 130.15 negates the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards 129.50 and 128.85.  

AUD/USD – Bearish reaction right at 0.7230/7265 key resistance

(click to enlarge chart)

Since our previous report dated on 2 June 2022, AUD/USD has inched higher but failed to stage a clear breakout above the highlighted 0.7230/7265 key short-term pivotal resistance and staged a retreat thereafter after it printed an intraday high of 0.7283 on 3 June 2022.

No change, maintain bearish bias for a further potential drop towards the near-term support of 0.7125 and a break below it may see a likely acceleration of the decline towards 0.7045 and 0.7000.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7265 revives the bullish tone towards the next resistance at 0.7335.

Time stamped: 6 June 2022 at 8.40pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer: CMC Markets Singapore may provide or make available research analysis or reports prepared or issued by entities within the CMC Markets group of companies, located and regulated under the laws in a foreign jurisdictions, in accordance with regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information.

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