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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (29 Jul 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Maintain bullish bias, continue to watch 1.0100 key support

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Since our previous report dated 26 July, EUR/USD has traded sideways and tested the 1.0100 predefined short-term pivotal support before it staged a bounce in the last two days.

No change, maintain the bullish bias for a potential on-going medium-term multi-week corrective rebound phase in place since 14 July 2022 swing low of 0.9950 and a break above 1.0270 reinforces an up move towards the next resistance zone of 1.0350/1.0400 in the first step.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.0100 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the key medium-term support zone of 1.0000/0.9950.

GBP/USD – 1.2240 resistance almost met with mixed elements, prefer to turn neutral

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GBP/USD has staged the expected rally and its current up move is now coming close to the 1.2240 resistance/target as highlighted in our previous report dated 26 July (printed an intraday high of 1.2204 today).

Mixed elements at this juncture as the rally has led GBP/USD to hover just below a descending trendline resistance that capped previous rallies since 27 May 2022 high with the hourly RSI oscillator (an indicator that measures momentum & overbought/oversold conditions) is fast approaching its overbought zone that indicates the risk of a bearish reversal or minor pull-back.

Prefer to turn neutral now between 1.2240 and 1.2030. Only a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2240 validates a further push-up towards the next resistance at 1.2325. On the flip side, a break with an hourly close below 1.2030 exposes GBP/USD for a deeper pull-back towards 1.1900.

USD/JPY – Multi-week corrective decline phase remains intact

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USD/JPY has staged the expected decline towards the 135.00/134.70 support/target as highlighted in our previous report dated 26 July after a whipsaw around 136.80 short-term pivotal resistance. Thereafter, it plummeted further to print a current intraday low today of 132.75 at this time of the writing.

All in all, USD/JPY has plunged by -179 pips in the last two days and yesterday’s (28 July) decline was the steepest since 26 November 2021. Maintain bearish bias with the possibility of a minor bounce first towards 134.20 with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 135.15 for another potential drop thereafter towards the next support at 132.20/131.90 and a break below 131.90 exposes the key medium-term support zone of 131.25/130.95 next.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 135.15 invalidates the accelerated decline scenario for a snap-backed rally to retest the 135.70 resistance.

AUD/USD – 0.7000 hit, maintain bullish bias

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AUD/USD has staged the expected rally and hit the first resistance/target of 0.7000 as highlighted in our previous report dated 26 July (printed an intraday high of 0.7018 today).

Price actions of AUD/USD are likely to be shaping up a multi-week corrective rebound phase since the 14 July 2022 low of 0.6681. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 0.6960 for a further potential up move towards the next resistances at 0.7090/7110 and 0.7110.

On the flip side, failure to hold at 0.6960 and an hourly close below it put the bullish tone on hold for a pull-back towards the 0.6860 support before another leg of potential corrective rebound kickstarts.

Time-stamped: 29 July 2022 at 1.15 pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets




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