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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (15 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Whipsawed around 1.0430 key short-term support, tolerate excess to 1.0400

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Since our last report dated on 13 June 2022, EUR/USD has breached below the 1.0430 key short-term pivotal support as it printed an intraday low of 1.0397 on 14 June before it reintegrated back above 1.0430.

More elements have now surfaced to support the potential short-term corrective tactical rebound scenario where the hourly RSI has shaped a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region. Maintain the bullish bias with the short-term pivotal support now at 1.0400 for a potential push up towards the intermediate resistances of 1.0540 and 1.0590.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.0400 invalidates the short-term tactical rebound scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move sequence towards 1.0370/1.0350 and 1.0300.

GBP/USD – Dropped to a 2-year low but a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out

 

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The recent steep drop of GBP/USD seen in the last two days has started to exhibit an extreme overstretched downside momentum condition where the hourly RSI oscillator has flashed out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region.

Maintain bullish bias with 1.1900/1860 as key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term corrective tactical rebound towards 1.2110 and a break above it may see 1.2220 next.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.1860 invalidates the short-term bounce scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move sequence towards 1.1740/1715 in the first step.

USD/JPY – Bearish elements started to emerge right below 135.70 key resistance

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USD/JPY has staged a push up towards the 135.70 upper limit of the neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 13 June 2022. It printed an intraday high of 135.59 in today’s Asia session before it staged a retreat.

Since 9 June 2022, the price actions of USD/JPY have started to oscillate within a short-term toppish “Expanding Wedge” configuration with a current bearish divergence signal displayed on the hourly RSI oscillator that indicates short-term upside momentum has started to ease off.

Flip to a bearish bias from a neutral stance below 135.70 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 133.95 (lower boundary of the “Expanding Wedge”) may kickstart a deeper corrective pull-back towards 132.95 in the first step within its medium-term uptrend phase.

However, a clearance with an hourly close above 135.70 sees the continuation of the impulsive up move sequence towards 137.20/50 next.

AUD/USD – Exhaustion sighted in short-term downside momentum, watch 0.6830 key support

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The downside momentum of the decline seen in AUD/USD for the last two days has started to abate. The hourly RSI oscillator has flashed out a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region and staged a bullish breakout from a former key corresponding descending resistance at the 42% level in today’s Asian session.

Watch the 0.6830 key short-term pivotal support and a break above 0.6960 may reinforce a short-term corrective tactical rebound scenario towards 0.7035 next.

On the flipside, a break with a hourly close below 0.6830 invalidates the short-term bounce scenario for a continuation of the impulsive down move sequence towards 0.6760 next in the first step.

Time stamped: 15 June 2022 at 3.55pm SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 


Disclaimer: CMC Markets Singapore may provide or make available research analysis or reports prepared or issued by entities within the CMC Markets group of companies, located and regulated under the laws in a foreign jurisdictions, in accordance with regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information.

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