Pressure on bonds, gold and the Japanese Yen in overnight trading point to rising confidence in the outlook for growth. European share indices rose. In the US, major indices finished only marginally down despite disappointment on bank earnings. The keys to the shift in sentiment are progress on trade talks and stronger China trade data.

Risks remain. There are 50 major US companies reporting quarterly earnings this week, as the season gets under way. US indices are near all-time highs, and a disappointing overall scorecard could rupture global markets. This may explain the overnight pressure on Asia Pacific futures markets.

The RBA releases minutes from its monthly meeting this morning. An accommodating tone is expected, in an echo of the dovishness expressed by global central banks since the beginning of the year. The Australian dollar may be vulnerable given its proximity to two month highs, but re-iteration of the RBA stance could see share market sentiment turn positive

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