This morning's CPI numbers have the AUD on a run. The buyers appear to reason that higher than expected inflation makes a rate cut less likely. However, expectations were already at lower levels, so this strength could be a temporary phenomenon. And there's a technical set up that may have traders itching to sell.
The daily chart above shows today's move takes AUD/USD to both a resistance level and the upper Bollinger band. The band is at 0.7712, and the high is .7709, so under a magnifying glass the market missed breaking the upper band. Traders will exercise their own discretion, but the shape of the move is more imporatnt to me, and I'm calling a reversion. Importantly, the bands are not widening, suggesting the rejection of the band is a more reliable signal
I'm a seller here, with a stop loss at 0.7726, looking to take profits on any approach to 0.7445.