So much for the opinion polls giving the Conservatives a 7 point lead. Tonight’s exit poll has seen the pound plunge on the currency markets, as the prospect of a “hung parliament” throws the start of Brexit talks into doubt. If this poll is even close to being accurate it is hard to see how Theresa May can survive as Conservative party leader let alone prime minister.
It is important to remember that in 2015 the exit poll put the Conservatives on 316 seats and they ended up with 331, so it could go either way. Weighing up the current arithmetic, if it stays this way, then neither party is likely to be able to form a stable government, which could well mean another election.
The pound has plunged back towards 1.2700 and could well go lower, unless this exit poll turns out to be completely wrong.
Of more interest is the fact that the SNP is predicted to have lost nearly 20 seats, showing that the appetite for Scottish independence may well be waning.
Heightened market volatility is likely over the election period, which could result in widened spreads. We recommend that you monitor positions carefully, consider the use of appropriate risk management tools and maintain a sufficient account surplus throughout this period.
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