The quiet part of this week for news is nearing an end. Traders have been preparing all week for the flurry of potentially big developments starting tonight, running through tomorrow and into Friday morning.
So far today, trading has been mixed. Despite a 4.6 mmbbl drawdown in API oil inventories, oil is giving some of yesterday's gains in a normal trading correction ahead of today's DOE inventories. US index futures are flat while the FTSE and Dax are up 0.25%.
Preparations in currency markets for tomorrow's big events have unfolded in stages, late last week the pound bounced back, earlier this week JPY and Gold rallied earlier this week. reflecting growing political risk concerns.
Today, the Euro is in the spotlight, tumbling ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. The single currency had been climbing since the French election on perceptions of easing political risk on the continent enabling the ECB to ease back on the gas earlier than previously thought. Overnight, however, reports have suggested the ECB may lower, not raise its inflation estimate due to falling oil prices. This could remove pressure from the ECB to signal changes to its currently ultra-dovish stance on monetary policy.
Tonight brings China trade data which could impact resource sensitive markets. Tomorrow, former FBI Director Comey's testimony to Congress may impact USD and US markets by either reigniting or killing impeachment speculation. Voters in the UK go to the polls with a study from Lord Ashcroft suggesting the Conservatives could win a 64 seat majority. Results late Thursday could spark significant market activity into Friday.
Dollarama $0.82 vs street $0.79
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Australia GDP street 1.6% vs previous 2.4%
Germany factory orders (2.1%) vs street 4.7% vs previous 2.4%
UK Halifax house prices 3.3% vs street 3.0% vs previous 3.8%
Italy retail sales 1.2% vs street 0.9%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
10:30 am EDT US DOE Crude oil inventories street (3.0 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street 0.9 mmbbls