Deutsche Bank will stay on world markets’ risk monitor until it resolves the issue of its GFC fines with the US Department of Justice. Unless that happens, markets will remain alert to the risk that it could be forced into a diluting capital raising.

Deutsche’s chart has arrived at a level that provides some guidance on future market thinking. Having broken the support of post GFC lows, the stock has staged a correction over the past week. That correction has now arrived at resistance in the form of the bottom end of a price gap and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

If price starts to fall away from this level, it will be a sign of ongoing nervousness. A push up through the top of this gap is likely to indicate the kind of relief associated with a favourable resolution of the fine issue. However, it will be difficult to conclude that the market is getting genuinely optimistic about this stock unless it breaks above resistance and the 200 day moving average.



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