The Yen came under pressure Friday, falling relative to USD, EUR and GBP. A shift from defense to more aggressive positions can be seen in the shift of capital back into resource dollars like AUD, NZD and CAD. Meanwhile, indices continue to roll over with head and shoulders tops forming in Australia 200 and UK 100.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 still appears to have completed a head and shoulders top trading below 5,825 its 50-day average in the 5,750 to 5,790 area. RSI hanging around 50 suggests a sideways trend emerging, perhaps between 5,600 and 5,800.
Hong Kong 50 continues to roll over with resistance falling toward 25,720, the index trading near 25,620 and next support near 25,500. RST testing 50 support where a breakdown would signal a downturn in momentum.
Japan 225 is sitting just below 20,000 within an emerging 19,750 to 20,250 trading range. Having bounced up off of the channel bottom, an upswing appears to be underway with support moving up from 19,880 toward 19.940. Next potential resistance near 20,120. RSI holding 50 indicates the underlying uptrend remains intact.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is bumping up against 21,400 where a breakout would set another all-time high with next measured resistance possible near 21,540. RSI getting overbought and a negative divergence suggest upward momentum could be peaking. Initial correction support possible near 21,345 then 21,290.
US SPX 500 is holding steady near 2,435 bouncing around in a 2,423 to 2,447 zone. Signals are mixed with RSI indicating slowing upward momentum but an ascending triangle indicating continuing accumulation.
US NDAQ 100 has stabilized near 5,700 for now, still trading below 5,755 its recent breakdown point but above its 50-day average near 5,635. RSI stuck below 50 indicates an emerging downtrend. Next support near 5,580 a 23% retracement of the recent uptrend.
UK 100 has bounced up off of 7,400 with support moving up toward 7,430 but it is struggling to get back above 7,500 and 50 on the RSI indicating emerging distribution. It would need to clear 7,545 to call off a head and shoulders top that continues to form.
Germany 30 is holding steady above 12,700 uptrend support trading near 12,750 above the middle of a 12,475 to 12,900 trading range. RSI holding 50 indicates underlying accumulation remains intact but a downturn still possible. Initial support near 12,620 with initial resistance near 12,825.
Gold has found some support near $1,250 but remains in a downtrend with resistance dropping from $1,260 toward $1,256. RSI below 50 and falling indicates momentum turning increasingly downward. Next potential support near $1,246 then the 200-day average near $1,240.
WTI crude oil has attracted support above $44.00 up from May’s low near $43.50 and is trying to rebound. It would need to retake $50.00 to signal an upturn with next potential resistance near $45.50 then $46.00 if successful.
US Dollar Index has dropped back into the lower half of a 96.20 to 97.65 trading range, slipping back under 97.00 after struggling to make headway beyond 97.50. RSI sitting on 50 where its next move could confirm an ongoing downtrend or signal an upturn.
EURUSD is trading in the lower half of a $1.1120 to $1.1290 trading range, sitting just below $1.200 having found initial support near $1.1165. RSI testing 50 support where success would keep the broader uptrend intact but failure would signal a downturn in momentum with next support possible near $1.1080.
GBPUSD is testing $1.2790 a Fibonacci level and the neckline of a completed head and shoulders top, as resistance having established higher support near $1.2700 and $1.2745. RSI steady just below 50 suggests we could be seeing a pause within a larger downtrend between $1.2635 and $1.2790 both Fibonacci retracements.
NZDUSD remains in an uptrend but its currently consolidating recent gains and working off an overbought RSI in the $0.7180 to $0.7260 rang. Next resistance possible near $0.7315 with next support possible near $0.7160
AUDUSD remains under accumulation, with support moving up toward $0.7580 and the pair advancing on $0.7625 Fibonacci resistance with its next upside test after that near $0.7670. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
USDSGD appears to be base building in the $1.3820 to $1.3870 area having washed out and bounced up off of $1.3700. Initial resistance possible near $1.3885 then $1.3925. RSI creeping up toward 50 indicates downward pressure easing.
USDJPY broke out Friday. The pair has cleared 111.00 and its 50-day average while RSI breaking out over 50 has confirmed the start of a new uptrend. Next potential resistance appears near 112.10 a 38% retracement of the previous downtrend. Downside support in place near 110.60, a Fibonacci level.
GBPJPY has broken out of a falling channel, clearing 141.40 and testing its 50-day average near 142.50. RSI still needs to retake 50 to confirm an upturn in momentum. Support moves up toward 141.00.
EURJPY is breaking out to the upside snapping downtrends in both the pair and the RSI. RSI also back above 50 confirms momentum turning upward. Having regained 124.00, next potential resistance appears near 125.00 and 125.30.
USDCAD remains in a downtrend, falling back toward $1.3220 after a trading bounce up from $1.3175 ran out of gas at a lower high near $1.3300, a Fibonacci level. RSI near oversold likely sparked the bounce so we could see a range bound pause to consolidate losses in the near term.
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