We’ve been seeing a clear shift in sentiment back toward risk markets today with capital moving back into risk markets like indices while retreating from defensive havens like JPY which has been dropping relative to USD and GBP.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is starting to turn back upward, rallying up off its 50-day average near 5,800 and retaking both 5,835 and 50 on the RSI. Next potential resistance appears closer to 5,900.
Japan 225 is climbing up out of a rounded bottom, regaining 18,500 and advancing on 18,620 with next potential resistance near 18,725 then 18,835 a former channel bottom. RSI climbing toward 50 indicates downward pressure fading.
Hong Kong 50 has turned back upward regaining 23,910 a Fibonacci level, its 50-day average and the 24,000 round number and continues to climb, advancing on 24,070. RSI still needs to retake 50 to confirm the upturn in momentum. Next potential resistance near 24,080 then 24,240.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is showing some signs of life, rallying up from 20,420 through 20,500 and back up toward 20,620. It remains under distribution within a falling channel, however unless it can retake its 50-day average near 20,700 and 50 on the RSI.
US SPX 500 is turning back upward, rallying up off of 2,340 toward 2,360 where it has broken out of a short-term downtrend. RSI retaking 50 confirms the upturn with next potential resistance near 2,365 then 2,380.
US NDAQ 100 continues to attract support above 5,400. The index has bounced up toward 5,450 to call off a head and shoulders top. RSI bouncing off 50 and breaking out of a downtrend signals momentum turning back upward. Resistance remains in place near 5,480.
UK 100 has stabilized near 7,100 trading between 7,090 and 7,120 while working off an oversold RSI. It remains in a downtrend having completed a head and shoulders top earlier this week with next potential support near the 7,000 round number.
Germany 30 is still hanging around the 12,000 round number and its 50-day average. The index is trading between 11,935 and 12,065 in what looks like a rest stop within an emerging downtrend. Next downside support possible near 11,900 then 11,815 a 23% retracement level with next resistance near 12,100.
Gold continues to attract support above $1,277 a Fibonacci level with more possible near $1,273, and is trading near $1,280. Overbought conditions have started to ease and the price appears to be consolidating recent advances. Upside resistance tests possible near $1,282 then $1,290 and $1,200, with further support near $1,256 a Fibonacci level and the 200-day average.
Crude Oil WTI successfully tested $50.00 support and has bounced a bit but it doesn’t appear to be out of the woods yet. Resistance has fallen toward $51.00 and the price has dropped back toward $50.25 while RSI remaining below 50 indicates downward pressure increasing. Next support on a breakdown possible near $49.50.
US Dollar Index has stabilized in the 99.30 to 99.70 area but it remains in a downswing with the index stuck below 100.00 and the RSI still trending downward. Next potential support appears near 99.00 then 98.65.
EURUSD was unable to overcome resistance near $1.0775 and has drifted back toward $1.0720. So far, however, it has held above support in the $1.0700 to $1.0720 area near a round number and Fibonacci level. RSI above 50 and rising indicates underlying upward momentum is still increasing.
GBPUSD continues to consolidate its massive breakout rally in the $1.2770 to $1.2860 range, recently trading near $1.2810. It’s trading well above its $1.2700 breakout point while facing resistance near $1.2900 then $1.3000.
NZDUSD is still bouncing around in a channel between $0.6900 and $0.7100 recently trading near the $0.7000 midpoint with RSI sitting on 50 confirming sideways momentum. Initial resistance at the 50-day average near $0.7045.
AUDUSD is retesting $0.7500 support which has held so far with the pair trading near $0.7530. Initial rebound resistance may appear near $0.7545 its 200-day average then $0.7600 with initial support possible near $0.7475 then $0.7400.
USDSGD still appears to be base building between $1.3940 and the $1.4000 around number. A breakout over that level and RSI retaking 50 would signal an upturn with next potential resistance at the 50-day average near $1.4050.
USDJPY is turning back upward continuing its rally up off of 108.00 by driving through Fibonacci cluster resistance in the 109.00 to 109.25 area and on toward 109.50 with next resistance near the 110.00 round number. RSI indicates a trading bounce underway to correct an oversold RSI.
GBPJPY is building on its recent break out of a downtrend which caused a descending triangle to fail by clearing its 50-day average near 139.25 and then the 140.00 round number. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms growing upward momentum with next potential resistance near 140.45 then 141.95.
EURJPY ran into resistance at its 200-day average near 117.90 and has been knocked back down toward 117.10 but it continues to advance up our of a hammer bottom near 115.00 with recent support emerging near 116.50. RSI climbing toward 50 indicates downward pressure and oversold conditions easing.
USDCAD is bumping up against $1.3500 as it continues to rally with support rising toward $1.3460. Next potential resistance at the December high closer to $1.3600. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
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