Falling commodity prices have kept the pressure on resource dollars with AUD falling to test $0.7500 and CAD breaking through $1.3500. The Yen is also in retreat against USD, GBP and EUR with gold testing support at a Fibonacci cluster. Indices also continue to struggle particularly in Hong Kong.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 is holding steady between 5,730 and 5,770. It remains in an uptrend above 5,700 and its 50-day average near 5,720. RSI lifting up off 50 indicates its underlying uptrend continues. Next potential resistance near 5,800 then 5,835.
Japan 225 is bouncing around between 19,270 and 19,410 while holding above its 50-day average. Higher lows in the index and the RSI indicate continued accumulation. Next potential resistance appears near 19,530 then 19,675 with more support in place near 19,000.
Hong Kong 50’s retreat is accelerating with the index taking out 23,500 then retesting it as resistance while RSI breaking under 50 confirms momentum turning downward. Next potential support near 23,400 then the 50-day average near 23,210.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is still drifting downward with resistance falling toward 20,875 and the index drifting down toward 20,830 a previous breakout point with next potential support near 20,700. RSI under 70 and falling indicates upward momentum weakening and a correction deepening.
US SPX 500 has dropped back into the 2,360 to 2,368 area as it continues to fall away from 2,400 resistance. RSI falling away from 70 indicates momentum downshifting from upward to neutral. Next potential support near 2,348 then 2,313 a Fibonacci level.
US NDAQ 100 is holding near 5,355 and the middle of a 5,300 to 5,400 trading range but it looks vulnerable with RSI falling away from 70 indicating weakening upward momentum. An uptrend appears to be failing but so far it looks like that could be replaced by a sideways trend.
UK 100 has successfully tested 7,255 its 50-day average and uptrend support, bouncing back above 7,300 and forming a hammer candle. RSI has successfully tested 50 confirming the underlying uptrend remains intact and the recent downdraft may be ending.
Germany 30 is still struggling with 12,000 round number resistance trading between 11,920 and 11,970. Lower highs in the RSI and a negative divergence indicates upward momentum has peaked and a downturn possible. Next potential support near 11,780 then the 50-day average near 11,730.
Gold has stabilized in its $1,200-$1,205 Fibonacci cluster support zone while the RSI has held 40 suggesting that the recent correction may have run its course. Next resistance possible near $1,209, $1,212 the 50-day average then $1,218 a Fibonacci level.
Crude Oil WTI is breaking down again today. An uptrend break that caused an ascending triangle to fail has been followed by a channel failing and the price nosediving under $50.00 and on toward $48.70. Support at the 200-day average near $48.30 has held so far and we could see a pause to work off an oversold RSI. Should that fail, however, next support may not appear until closer to $47.75.
US Dollar Index has slipped back under 102.00 from 102.25 as it struggles to complete an ascending triangle, unable to push significantly higher. RSI indicates upward momentum flattening. Next resistance possible near 102.50 with initial support in a pullback near 101.70 then 101.00.
EURUSD remains in a downtrend with the RSI still below 50 and the pair trading under resistance in the $1.0585 to $1.0600 area. A recent breakout appears to be failing as distribution resumes with next potential support near $1.0525 then $1.0500.
GBPUSD continues to stabilize as it attracts support above $1.2140 and trades up toward $1.2180. The right shoulder of a head and shoulders base appears to be forming with next potential resistance near $1.2200 then $1.2260.
NZDUSD appears to be trying to stabilize near $0.6900 above its December low near $0.6860. RSI is getting oversold suggesting potential for a pause or a bounce. Initial resistance falls toward $0.6920 from $0.6980 with next support near $0 6800.
AUDUSD has a big round number test underway at $0.7500. The pair is under pressure having already broken its 200-day average near $0.7535. Next potential support near $0.7440 then $0.7400 on a breakdown. RSI under 50 and falling confirms downward pressure increasing.
USDSGD is breaking out to the upside with the pair breaking out of a downtrend and the RSI climbing up from 50 indicating momentum turning upward. Support moves up toward $1.4190 from $1.4155 with resistance possible at the 50-day average near $1.4220, then $1.4260 a Fibonacci level.
USDJPY is sending mixed signals. Rising RSI and higher lows indicate an accelerating upswing with support rising toward 114.30 from 114.05 a Fibonacci level and the 50-day average. Resistance remains in place at the 115.00 round number with more possible near 115.50 another retracement test.
GBPJPY continues its bounce up off a successful test of its 200-day average near 138.10 with support rising toward 139.00 and the pair advancing on 140.00 with next resistance possible between 140.80 and the 50-day average near 141.20.
EURJPY is breaking out today, clearing 121.00 to complete a head and shoulders base and signal the start of a new uptrend. RSI breaking out over 50 confirms momentum turning increasingly upward with next potential resistance near 121.60 then 122.40 and 123.00 on trend.
USDCAD is breaking out again today, clearing the $1.3500 round number and advancing on $1.3520 with next potential resistance near $1.3540 then $1.3600. RSI getting extremely overbought suggests potential for a pause or correction but is confirming rally momentum for now.
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