A clear shift in capital flows back into defensive havens appears to be underway with JPY rebounding ahead of the Bank of Japan meetings and gold rebounding on reports of terrorist attacks in Turkey and Germany indicating political instability. On the other hand, resource currencies have been under pressure again today with NZD, AUD and CAD confirming breakdowns that started last week. GBP has also been falling relative to USD and JPY. Indices are steady except for the Hong Kong 50 which has also confirmed a breakdown with a retest of old support as new resistance. .
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has resumed its uptrend with support moving up toward 5,500 from 5,400. The index is challenging 5,600 which could end in a big breakout or a big double top. Next potential measured resistance on a breakout possible ner 5,800. Higher lows in the RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
Japan 225 has levelled off in the 19,330 to 19,430 range pausing to consolidate recent gains and work off an overbought RSI. Initial support in a correction possible near 19,150 then 19,000 with upside resistance in place near 19,520.
Hong Kong 50 continues to break down, with 22,000 former channel support becoming new resistance and the index sliding to test its 200-day moving average near 21,800 with the index trading between 21,735 and 21,870. RSI nearing oversold but also confirming downward pressure increasing.
North American and European Indices
US 30 is holding steady between 19,870 and 19,900 short of the 20,000 round number and above 19,745 initial channel support. RSI overbought and falling toward 70 suggests upward momentum starting to fade and a correction possible. Next downside support near 19,390 a 23% Fibonacci retracement of its post-election rally.
US SPX 500 has paused between 2,245 and 2,280 to work off an overbought RSI and consolidate its recent march to new all-time highs. Next measured resistance near 2,315 with next support near 2,220 a 23% retracement of the post-election rally.
US NDAQ 100 continues to consolidate above 4,900 its recent breakout point trading near 4,925 with resistance still in place near 4,965 then the 5,000 big round number.
UK 100 is hanging around the 7,000 level again trading between 6,990 and 7,030 with next support near 7,060 then 7,110 and next support near 6,925.
Germany 30 is bumping up against channel resistance near 11,445 once again, trading between 11,380 and 11,425. Overbought RSI suggests it may need to pause for a rest in the near term. Next upside resistance near 11,500 with next support near 11,340.
Gold is on the rebound for a second straight day advancing on $1,140 and trading between $1,137 and $1,143 while support moves up from near $1,120 toward $1,132. RSI remain really oversold so a bigger bounce remains possible. Next resistance possible near $1,152 where it recently broke down.
Crude Oil WTI has run into resistance at a lower high near $52.50 and has dropped back toward $51.95 with initial support near $51.60 a recent breakout point. It remains near the middle of a wider $50.00 to $54.25 range where it has been consolidating while its underlying uptrend remains intact.
US Dollar Index has bounced up from near 102.50 toward 103.10 but remains short of resistance near 103.20 and 103.50 with lower highs suggesting a top may be forming. At the same time the index remains well above its 10.00 recent breakout point indicating underlying accumulation remains intact so signals are mixed.
EURUSD seems to be trying to base build trading near $1.0400 but at the same time it continues to struggle with resistance near $1.0450 then $1.0500. A heads and shoulder bottom in the RSI still indicates the recent downtrend ending and a bottom forming. Downside support in place near $1.0360.
GBPUSD failed to retake $1.2500 after running into a wall of resistance and has been knocked back down toward $1.2390 and a test of its 50-day average. Resistance falls toward $1.2460 with next support possible near $1.2360.
NZDUSD remains under distribution with $0.7000 a big round number and the neckline of a head and shoulders top emerging as new resistance following a breakdown. Falling RSI confirms downward pressure increasing. Next potential support near $0.6920 then $0.6885.
AUDUSD has retested $0.7300 former support as new resistance confirming its recent breakdown and the start of a new downleg. Falling RSI indicates downward pressure increasing but could be near a trough with a positive RSI divergence emerging. Next support possible near $0.7235 then $0.7145.
USDSGD is still bumping up against $1.3500 round number resistance while support has moved up toward $1.4400 from $1.4300. Next measured resistance appears near $1.4375. A negative RSI divergence indicates upward momentum may be peaking.
USDJPY is really starting to roll over now. Having run into resistance near 118.60 last week, the pair has dropped back toward 117.30 with resistance falling toward 117.60. A really overbought RSI and a negative divergence indicate momentum has peaked and a correction could be starting with initial support near 116.90 then 115.335 a Fibonacci level and the 115.00 round number.
GBPJPY is seriously rolling over today falling from near 146.80 through 146.40 a Fibonacci level and on toward the 145.00 round number trading between 144.55 and 145.55. RSI breaking under 70 confirms a correction starting with next potential support near 142.70 and the 200-day average.
EURJPY is starting to turn back downward from a lower high near 124.00 falling under 123.00 and on into the 121.80 to 122.20 area. RSI under 70 and falling confirms upward momentum past its peak and fading fast. Next potential support appears near 120.95 then the 120.00 round number.
USDCAD remains in an uptrend with $1.3300 Fibonacci support holding and the pair retaking $1.3375 and its 50-day average on its way back up toward the $1.3400 to $1.3440 zone with next resistance after that possible near the $1.3500 round number. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing.
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