The USD index gained for a tenth straight day Friday and even though the rally looks unstoppable, we all know markets don’t go straight up forever and a reversal appears possible as the US Thanksgiving holiday approaches. Friday saw a number of USD related markets pop staging what could be exhaustion gaps and buying climaxes. A reversal to start the week could leave behind island tops or evening stars.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to retreat within a broad 5,000 to 5,600 trading range sliding from a lower high near 5,400 into the 5,275 to 5,355 range between its 200-day and 50-day averages with next support after that near 5,200. RSI sitting on 50 sending mixed signals on direction.
Hong Kong 50 has paused between 22,140 and Fibonacci level and 22,380 in what so far looks like a pause within an ongoing downtrend. RSI suggests downward pressure levelling off but a retest of 22,000 can’t be ruled out. Initial rally resistance possible near 22,500.
Japan 225 continues to probe 18,000 resistance trading up toward 18,100 before slipping back toward 17,980. A double top in the RSI near 70 suggests upward momentum may be topping with a correction back toward 17,795 a recent breakout point possible.
North American and European Indices
US 30 keeps bumping up against 19,000 but failing to get through as an overbought RSI suggests potential for a pause or correction. Recently trading between 18,850 and 18,910, next potential support appears near 18,725.
US NDAQ 100 is moving upward within a 4,740 to 4,900 trading range testing its 50-day average near 4,815 with next resistance near 4,840. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms an upswing underway.
US SPX 500 is testing 2,190 channel resistance where a breakout would signal the start of a new upleg into all-time highs and confirm the recent US 30 breakout. Next potential resistance near 2,200 then a measured 2,270. Support rises toward 2,180 from 2,160.
UK 100 has paused in the 6,470 to 6,810 range near 6,775 digesting recent declines trading above 6,700 support but below 6,925 resistance, its 50-day average near 6,900 and 50 on the RSI. Next downside tests possible near 6,650 then 6,600
Germany 30 continues to bounce around between 10,600 and 10,800 above its 50-day average and near the top of a wider 10,000 to 10,880 band, bouncing between 10,640 and 10,740. RSI between 50 and 60 indicates continued support within a sideways trend.
Gold remains under pressure but could be near a near-term bottom. It broke $1,211 Fibonacci support, fell to successfully test $1,200 and has since completed a round trip and potential bear trap. An oversold RSI and positive divergence suggests downward pressure easing and bounce possible with initial resistance in place near $1,230.
Crude Oil WTI established support at a higher low near $44.40 and has resumed its upswing, regaining $45.00 and advancing on $45.50 with next potential resistance near $46.00 then the 50-day average near $46.90. RSI advancing on 50 indicates downward pressure fading and confirmation of an upturn pending.
US Dollar Index continues to rally, breaking out over 101.00 and shooting up toward 101.50. RSI remains really overbought so a correction looks possible with initial support near 100.50 then the 100.00 round number. Next potential resistance near 103.00 based on a double measured move from a prior channel.
EURUSD dipped under $1.0600 toward $1.0570 before rebounding toward $1.0630 in what could be a bear trap washout. RSI is deeply oversold indicating the potential for a rebound with initial resistance possible near $1.0680 then $1.0730 a 23% retracement of the post-election selloff.
GBPUSD remains under pressure falling from near $1.2440 back under $1.2350 with next potential support near $1.2280 then $1.2250. RSI under 50 and falling indicates downward momentum accelerating.
NZDUSD continues to test and hold support at the $0.7000 level where a round number the 200-day average, neckline of a head and shoulders top and Fibonacci support all converge. Next potential support near $0 6950 with initial rebound resistance possible near $0.7060 then $0.7710
AUDUSD broke down again Friday taking out $0.7390 a channel bottom to signal the start of a new downleg. The pair fell toward $0.7340 with next potential support in the $0.7280 to $0.7300 area. Oversold RSI indicates potential for a pause or bounce with old support becoming initial resistance.
USDSGD remains in an uptrend clearing $1.4200 and rallying toward $1.4290 with next resistance possible near $1.4320 then $1.4400. RSI really overbought suggests a correction possible with next support near $1.4170 then $1.4125.
USDJPY achieved another new high near 111.00 on a breakout over $110.00 but feels like its grasping at straws. Really overbought RSI indicates potential for a correction with initial support possible near 109.05 a Fibonacci level.
GBPJPY has paused for a rest near 136.50 trading between 135.50 and 137.50 while digesting an overbought RSI below 138.10 Fibonacci resistance. Additional support possible near the 135.00 round number.
EURJPY has paused to consolidate recent gains and a breakout from a channel over 116.00 trading between 116.80 and 117.50 with next potential resistance near a measured 118.00 then 118.35 a Fibonacci level. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
USDCAD remains in an uptrend of higher lows confirmed by RSI holding well above 50 but at the same time it continues to struggle with $1.3570 Fibonacci resistance having dropped back toward $1.3500 with next potential support near $1.3480 and $1.3400 in a pullback.
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