USD continues to retreat ahead of the US election as traders reassess the possibility Donald Trump cold squeak out an upset win. Capital continues to move back into gold and JPY as defensive havens, with EUR, NZD and AUD also climbing. WTI remains under pressure falling within a well-established range. Indices remain under distribution. US markets spent most of Friday in the green but finished in the red near their lows of the day. Some oversold conditions have emerged but overall trends remain downward. We could see volatility really pick up the closer we get to the US election results.
Asia Pacific indices
Australia 200 continues to fall with resistance dropping toward 5,200 from 5,240. Recently trading near 5,165, next potential support appears near 5,100 then 5,025. RSI getting oversold suggests potential for a pause or a trading bounce.
Hong Kong 50 remains under distribution but has paused near 22,500 to deal with an oversold RSI following a quick drop down from 23,000. Next support possible near 22,325 with initial rebound resistance near 22,755.
Japan 225 keeps on sliding, falling away from 17,000 and 50 on the RSI following breakdowns that signalled the start of a new downtrend. Initial support tests possible at the 50-day average near 16,875 then Fibonacci level near 16,815 and 16,675.
North American and European Indices
US 30 remains under distribution with the 18,000 breakdown point becoming new resistance. RSI under 50 and falling confirms the current downtrend. Recently trading between 17,900 and 17,940 with next potential support at the 200-day near 17,780.
US NDAQ 100 remains under pressure, dropping toward 4,660 after failing to retake 4,700 and setting a lower high on trend. It remains way below its 4,740 breakdown point with next downside support on trend near 5,625 then the 200-day average near 4,535. RSI getting oversold so a pause or bounce possible.
US SPX 500 is testing its 200-day average near 2,085 where it could pause to digest an oversold RSI and its recent breakdown under 2,100 which completed a rounded top. Next potential support test near 2,062.
UK 100 is still falling off a cliff, diving from near 6,770 down through 6,700 and on toward 6,665 with resistance falling toward 6,730. RSI getting oversold so a bounce or pause possible sometime. Next downside support possible near 6,600.
Germany 30 broke down Friday, taking out 10,335 which may become resistance and falling toward the 10,210 to 10,250 area with next potential support at the 520-day average near 10,065. Falling RSI confirms momentum turning increasingly downward.
Gold is consolidating recent gains trading above $1,300, just above its 50-day average and $1,298 a Fibonacci level. Rising RSI indicates underlying accumulation remains intact. Next potential resistance near $1,311 then $1,330 with next support near $1,282.
Crude Oil WTI has found some support near $44.00 with more possible at its 200-day average near $42.70. $45.00, the midpoint of a $40-$50 channel has emerged as initial resistance then $46.00.
US Dollar Index continues to roll over, sliding toward 97.00 with resistance falling toward 97.35 and next support possible near the 50-day average near 96.500 and then 96.00.
EURUSD continues to climb, clearing its 50-day average near $1.1111 to confirm an upswing underway with nexty potential resistance at the 200-day near $1.1175 then $1.1200. Support rises toward $1.1075 from $1.1000. RSI confirms upward momentum increasing.
GBPUSD continues to climb with the pair advancing from $1.2450 support through $1.2500 round number and on toward with next potential measured resistance near $1.2600. RSI retaking 50 confirms momentum turning upward.
NZDUSD met some resistance near $0.7340 which is not unusual after a big spike upward, but more importantly is holding $0.7300 as support confirming that a head and shoulders top pattern has failed and a new upswing underway with next potential resistance near $0.7365 then $0.7415.
AUDUSD continues to form a big ascending triangle base below $0.7725 resistance and above $0.7600 uptrend support recently trading between $0.7650 and $0.7690. RSI above 50 indicates an upswing underway. Next resistance on a breakout possible near $0.7800 then $0.7835.
USDSGD continues to consolidate between $1.3800 and $1.3880. RSI sitting on 50 indicates neutral momentum so it’s unclear if this is a higher low in an uptrend or the start of a downtrend. Next support and resistance near $1.3770 and $1.3960.
USDJPY has paused near 103.00 and its 50-day average to digest a big drop down from 105.00 in recent days. RSI under 50 indicates an emerging downtrend. Initial resistance near 103.30 with next potential support near 101.55.
GBPJPY is breaking out of a base, clearing 128.80 to complete an ascending triangle. Initial resistance appears near the 130.00 round number then the 50-day average near 130.90. RSI clearing 50 confirms the start of a new uptrend.
EURJPY held 114.00 the middle of a 112.00 to 116.00 channel and 50 on the RSI to set higher lows and keep its uptrend intact. Initial resistance appears near 114.95 then 115.55.
USDCAD remains stuck below $1.3500 resistance trading between $1.3360 and $1.3460 with next support near $1.3310. RSI indicates momentum neutral to slightly upward.
USDMXN has dropped back to retest 19.00 round number support in what looks like a normal trading correction of a big spike up from 18.48 to 19.52 in recent days. Pair remains in an uptrend with Fibonacci support in place near 18.82.